Tag Archives: 2023

Why the public still views inflation as a major problem, despite the official numbers  – by New Deal democrat This is the topic I indicated last week I wanted to write about more at length.  Paul Krugman wrote last week about the disconnect between most economists, who see inflation declining, and voters, who still see inflation as a major concern. Here’s a couple of his tweets: As I wrote last week, the “shrinkflation” in new homes is very...

New 20+ year record high mortgage rates begin to impact home sales; bifurcation in new vs. existing home prices continues  – by New Deal democrat In addition to updated reports on new home sales and prices, and existing home prices this morning, there’s some very important news on mortgage rates. Namely, at 7.51%, mortgage rates are the highest they have been since December 2000. Here’s what they looked like through the end of last week:...

Have to ask the question as to whether these early showings are predictors of what is to come in 2024 election. I do not recall this type of election wins in 2016. In any case, if Dems win big, it will be another stolen election! Last night, people voted in elections in two different states. “Those results tell us way more about the state of our democracy and the political strength of the pro-democracy forces in this country than all of today’s...

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks ago. To wit: initial claims declined -20,000 to 201,000, the lowest number since...

Weekly Indicators for September 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The only significant change in any metric is that manufacturing, as measured by the average of the new orders sub-indexes of the regional Feds’ monthly reports is on the very cusp of improving from negative to neutral, due to a big improvement in the New York region. That improvement probably reflects the...

The action by the United Auto Workers is part of a burst of labor activism attempting to reverse a decades-long trend. The trend as noted in the following graph. How the Latest Labor Strikes Are Attempting to Reverse Decades-Long Trends, The New York Times, David Leonhardt. (If you are having issues linking to this article to read the rest of it, you can subscribe to NYT and can read a few articles for free.) Some of the story (you can...

UAW-automakers negotiations pit falling wages against skyrocketing CEO pay: U.S. auto companies have the means to invest in EVs, pay workers a fair share, and still earn healthy profits | Economic Policy Institute, epi.org, Adam S. Hersh. Yet they are not paying Labor it’s overdue fair share of wages. United Auto Workers (UAW) members at the “Big 3” companies of Ford, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis are waiting to strike this week....

Weekly Indicators for September 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The tug of war between the headwind of high interest rates and the tailwind of low commodity and consumer inflation continues. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you right up to the present on the data and bring me a smal $$$ reward for my efforts. New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for August...

A question being asked by The Economist; Where do Americans mingle?, Vienna Virginia  Sit-down chain restaurants foster more cross-class mixing than any other institution. Sit-down chain restaurants, like Olive Garden, Chili’s, and Applebee’s are prime sites for many Americans. Restaurants bring Americans together more than any other private or public institution and eclipse bars, churches, petrol stations, libraries, parks and schools ....

Vehicle sales and residential and manufacturing plant construction continue to outweigh general manufacturing downturn  –  by New Deal democrat No important economic news today, but on Friday in addition to the employment report we did get our typical 1st of the month snapshot of manufacturing, vehicle sales, and construction, so let’s look at each. The ISM manufacturing index has had an excellent record going all the way back to the 1940s,...