Tag Archives: Economic Releases

An already weak economy seems to be turning south: Deaths lag new cases by several weeks= they are going a lot higher:

Still over 700,000 new claims this long after the collapse: Still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 collapse:

Still down over 10 million jobs vs pre covid: The Cares Act expenditures are winding down… Private payroll recovery leveling off: Same pattern. Collapse, partial recovery, then sideways to down:

Partial recovery but recent data shows growth stalling while a large gap (unemployment) persistsas tariffs, covid, and no additional fiscal support continue: The gap initially closed relatively quickly, but progress has slowed:

Still trending lower: More testing AND the % positive is up as new cases and deaths, which lag new cases, increase: Weakening:

Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which meansto me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress,and without a sufficient majority in the Senate all initiatives may be blocked indefinitely. Most likely new home sales at best return to their pre covid growth path: Trump was upset with Canada because they weren’t charging us enough for lumber: Lumber prices across North America have nearly tripled since 2019. Based on a...

Becoming clear housing isn’t doing all that well:

Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower levels: As with vehicles, the rate of monthly sales has recovered to prior levels, but sales lost during the dip weren’t recovered: Industrial production has had a much weaker recovery and has turned back down: Recovered some but still down from pre covid levels:...

Still way high and moved up again- not good! The survivors are feeling a bit better: