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Home / Tag Archives: Economic Releases (page 20)

Tag Archives: Economic Releases

JOLTS, Exports, Lumber prices, Trump comments

Openings have rolled over and hires gone flat. Neither are population adjusted so it’s worse than it looks here: New export orders now below 2016 collapse: All these statements are entirely false, of course, but interesting how the ’45 year’ statement repeats- seems somehow he’s ‘connecting’ it to him being the 45th President?

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ISM, Canada

US service sector continues its rapid deceleration: Seems about the same everywhere- imports and exports both down: Canada’s trade surplus decreased to CAD 0.14 billion in June 2019 from a downwardly revised CAD 0.56 billion in the previous month and against market expectations of a CAD 0.3 billion gap. It was the third trade surplus since December 2016, as exports were down 5.1 percent, while imports fell at a softer 4.3 percent, both due in part to significant decreases...

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Employment, Factory orders, Trade, Construction

Deceleration continues- see chart: Highlights How far along the rate-cut path will the Fed go? Maybe a bit further given a middling employment report where an important detail is pointing to big trouble for the next industrial production report. First the headlines as nonfarm payroll rose 164,000 which is actually 13,000 above Econoday’s consensus for 151,000. But much of the strength came for a second month from government payrolls which, reflecting the heavy government...

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ADP, Chicago PMI, Buy backs, Domestic product sales

Rolling over: Highlights ADP estimates that private payroll growth in Friday’s employment report for July will rise 156,000. Econoday’s consensus for this estimate was 155,000 and forecasters see actual private payrolls coming in at 160,000 in Friday’s report vs 191,000 in June. Highlights In the lowest reading in 4-1/2 years, the Chicago PMI fell 5.3 points in July to 44.4. New orders sank deeper into contraction with employment falling into contraction for the first...

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Personal income and consumption, Home prices, Pending home sales, Oil capex, Euro area

Income and consumption is growing at lower but moderate pace, but has been decelerating since the tariffs started to bite and global trade began its collapse: Highlights The month-to-month breakdown of consumer spending shows slowing in what will offer support for those on the FOMC who want to cut interest rates this week. Despite the strength of June retail sales, total consumer spending in the month rose only 0.3 percent following gains of 0.5 percent in May and 0.6...

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GDI, Productivity, China pmi, Dallas Fed

Gross domestic income was just revised higher. The blue bars are the previously reported levels and the red bars are the revised levels. This further meant that the savings rate unspent income) was higher as previously discussed. And an increasing savings rate generally reflects a deceleration in borrowing: Lack of aggregate demand- desires to not spend income not being sufficiently ‘offset’ by’ private or public sector net (deficit) spending: I see deceleration in both,...

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Durable goods, KC Fed, Mtg purchase apps, New home sales, US and euro area PMI’s, Trump quote

Year over year in contraction. And the chart is not adjusted for inflation: Negative: Lower rates don’t seem to be helping: Highlights The purchase index continues to pull back in what is an unfavorable indication for underlying home sales. After falling 4.0 percent in the prior week, the index fell 2.0 percent in the July 19 week to pull down year-on-year growth to 6.0 percent. Refinancing activity has also been coming down, 2.0 percent lower in the week. Rates fell back...

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Mtg purchase apps, New home sales, US and euro area PMI’s, Trump quote

Lower rates don’t seem to be helping: Highlights The purchase index continues to pull back in what is an unfavorable indication for underlying home sales. After falling 4.0 percent in the prior week, the index fell 2.0 percent in the July 19 week to pull down year-on-year growth to 6.0 percent. Refinancing activity has also been coming down, 2.0 percent lower in the week. Rates fell back in the week, down 4 basis points to 4.08 percent for conventional 30-year loans. Still...

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Existing home sales, Richmond Fed, UK factory orders, Chemical Activity Barometer

Worse than expected and in contraction year over year: Highlights The housing market firmed in the early Spring but has since flattened out. Existing home sales came in softer-than-expected at a 5.270 million annual rate in June which, however, is right in line with the 3-month average of 5.280 million. This average started the year at roughly 5.1 million. Single-family resales fell 1.5 percent in the month to a 4.690 million pace while condo sales, the second and much...

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