Tag Archives: Economic Releases

Still contracting: This indicator is flashing recession again. Last time this happened a few years ago the numbers were subsequently revised higher: Not a good sign: Lending to house flippers hits a 13-year high as prices and competition heat up

Tariffs taking a bite- deceleration in progress: Corporate profits had been flat, got a one time boost from the tax cuts, and then flattened again: The non financial’s have done even worse: Contraction:

Up a bit last month, but note they are less than half of where they were the last cycle, and hovering around early 1980’s levels, when there were a lot fewer people: Down to no annual growth:

More deceleration: US Home Price Growth Slows to New 7-Year Low The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US rose 2% year-on-year in July, missing market expectations of 2.2%. It was the smallest annual gain in house prices since August 2012. Phoenix recorded the biggest increase in home prices, followed by Las Vegas and Charlotte, while the smallest gains were seen in San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles. Prices in Seattle continued to drop....

Someone else agrees with me about the tariffs and the global trade collapse: CNBC: The trade war is weighing ‘like a big, dark cloud’ on the global economy, says Christine Lagarde. And this would function like a tax increase: Bloomberg: President Trump Doubles Down on Call for Negative Interest Rates. Today’s tariff induced bad news:

Highlights A snapback for manufacturing production led a jump into the positive column for the national activity index which at 0.10 marks the second positive score in three months. Yet the 3-month average, at minus 0.06, remains in the negative column for the seventh straight month. Manufacturing has been the center of weakness for this indicator but posted a strong gain in August’s industrial production report. Offsetting this strength was a drop below 50 to 49.1 for the...

Still contracting: Commercial loan growth has flattened this year: Oil capex seems to be headed south again. Might take higher prices to bring it back. And the way the decline curves work output should be peaking soon and then declining: Highlights The Baker Hughes North American rig count is down 33 rigs in the September 20 week to 987. The U.S. rig count is down 18 rigs from last week to 868 and is down 185 rigs from last year at this time. The Canadian count is down...

Today happens to be the eco strike: Trump grants tariff exemptions to plastic straws, dog leashes and more from China Must be some defense agreement no one else knows about: Trump sanctions Iran’s central bank in wake of strikes on Saudi oil facilities No end to tariffs in sight, and no interest in helping Trump politically: China officials have changed their travel schedule and were headed back to China earlier than planned, according to Nicole Rolf, the Montana Farm...

Up some for the month, but remain weak and depressed historically, especially on a per capita basis: Manufacturing surveys continue to forecast weakness: I think what he wants rate cuts because he (and most everyone else) believes that will make the dollar go down which he further believes will reduce the trade deficit and support economic growth: And the VP isn’t far behind the big guy: Pence says other countries should ‘emulate’ US economic policies to catch up Vice...

The global trade collapse from tariffs continues: They all have it backwards- it’s the 5th deadly innocent fraud- as the great global trade collapse continues: Blackstone’s Schwarzman: China’s economic ‘miracle’ came at the expense of the US and the West “That leads the developed world to say to China: ‘We’ve got to rebalance this. It’s working for you. It’s not working for us,’” says Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman. Up a bit this month, but levels remain historically...