Tag Archives: GDP

My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth:This kind of personal consumption collapsed with the collapse in oil prices and oil capex: This is for September, and is slowing as previously discussed after permits peaked in June with the...

Looks a lot more negative since the October 5 Saudi price cuts than the futures markets. These price are more indicative of prices of physical oil vs financial portfolio activities:Note the lack of results of ‘monetary policy’: China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly Nov 1 (Reuters) — Activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in October for a third straight month, an official survey showed on Sunday, fuelling fears the economy may still be...

Rail Week Ending 24 October 2015: A Worse Week Among Bad Weeks Week 42 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) and monthly total rail traffic (from same month one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. and weekly railcar counts continued in contraction. See how the growth rate slowed down just before year...

Income and spending and pricing low and lower than expected: Personal Income and OutlaysHighlightsInflation is not building based on the Fed’s favorite reading, the core PCE price index which inched a lower-than-expected 0.1 percent higher in September with the year-on-year rate steady and flat at only plus 1.3 percent. These results will not lift the odds for a December hike at the next FOMC.Income and spending data also came in below expectations, at plus 0.1 percent each vs expectations...

A weak number and Q4 not looking so good either. Domestic spending decelerating as incomes fade from reduced capex. Slowing investment, weak exports, and inventory reductions should also continue into Q4 as top line growth continues to fade. And lower prices speak to lower demand. Vehicle sales also looking to slow into Q4 as per recent vehicle loan stats and industry forecasts. GDPHighlightsSteady domestic spending helped to prop up GDP growth in the third-quarter which came in at an...

Down to .8: Crude inventory that used to pile up from high cost shale production is coming down as drilling is way down and existing well output declines some 70% in its first two years. Meanwhile, US imports increase as domestic production decreases: Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub fell by 748,000 barrels, data from the industry group, the American Petroleum Institute, showed late on Tuesday.Iraq’s southern oil exports have reached 3.10 million barrels so far this month,...

A lot less than expected based on jobs assessment, and note the drop in car buying plans: United States : Consumer ConfidenceHighlightsA decline in the assessment of the current jobs market pulled down the consumer confidence index to a lower-than-expected 97.6 in October. This is about 2.4 points below Econoday’s low-end forecast and 5.0 points below a revised September.Consumers are saying there are fewer jobs available then there were in September and more say jobs are hard to get. But...

No letup yet as Saudi discounts continue: My RT interview on the price of oil here. Seems suddenly everyone is missing on revenues? Total sales (less inventory draw down)= GDP AT&T warns of revenue miss in Q3

After the up and down in front of the change in regulations new purchase apps are, so far, lower than before: Fits with the permit spike/decline story, and there was also this note: The multi-family residential market was negative for the eighth consecutive month – and this might be indicating a slowdown for apartments – or at least less growth. Japan export growth slows sharply, raising fears of recession By Tetsushi KajimotoOct 21 (Reuters) — Japan’s annual export growth slowed for the...

Still no sign of acceleration:Though still how historically, the growth rate in real estate secured lending has picked up some, probably reflecting fewer cash buyers and the modest increases in sales:This is up some as well. Note that it went up gradually into the last recession, probably because when things go bad people borrow for a while before cutting back:This is a new series. The latest leveling off might be an indication that the mini surge in car sales is over? ECRI’s WLI Growth...