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Tag Archives: GDP

Business Roundtable, Mtg apps, ADP, Productivity, 1 year charts

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years For third consecutive quarter, U.S. CEOs cautious on economy Dec 1 (Reuters) — The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index fell 6.6 points to 67.5 in the fourth quarter. The long-term...

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Saudi output, Redbook sales, PMI, ISM

While demand for Saudi crude is up a bit, seems it’s still far below their presumed 12 million or so bpd capacity, and their strategy has been to lower their prices to the point where they are selling their full capacity: Nice bounce here, as the year over year comparisons get ‘easier’: RedbookHighlightsStore sales surged in the November 28 week, the week that includes Black Friday. Redbook’s same-store year-on-year sales tally jumped to plus 3.9 percent, more than doubling the pace of...

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Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed

Another bad one, reversing last month’s suspect move up: Chicago PMIHighlightsVolatility is what to expect from the Chicago PMI which, at 48.7, is back in contraction in November after surging into strong expansion at 56.2 in October. Up and down and up and down is the pattern with prior readings at 48.7 in September (the same as November) and 54.4 in August.New orders are down sharply and are back in contraction while backlog orders are in a 10th month of contraction. Production soared...

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Mtg prch apps, Durable goods, Personal income and outlays, New home sales, Consumer Sentiment, PMI services

Purchase apps have been flat to down for quite a while now,and the year over year comp will be reflecting that in a few months as well: United States : MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsAfter spiking sharply in the prior when rates jumped and triggered concern they would move even higher, mortgage application volumes eased in the November 20 week as rates settled back with purchase applications down 1.0 percent and refinancing applications down 5.0 percent. However, purchase applications,...

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Discount rate, Profits, GDP commentary

Interesting, with no discount borrowings, the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents want a discount rate hike? Nine Fed banks called for discount rate hike: minutes Nov 24 (Reuters) — The number of regional Federal Reserve banks pushing for a hike in what commercial banks are charged for emergency loans rose to nine in October, minutes from its discount rate meeting showed. Eight Fed banks had voted to raise the discount rate at the prior meeting in September, a jump from five in July...

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Euro area depression, charted

"The euro area economy is gradually emerging from a deep and protracted downturn. However, despite improvements over the last year, real GDP is still below the level of the first quarter of 2008. The picture is more striking still if one looks at where nominal growth would be now if pre-crisis trends had been maintained." So said Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in a recent presentation to the FAROS Institutional Investors' Forum.He's not wrong. From his presentation,...

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Atlanta Fed, Investor poll, Fed surveys

The crowd is not always wrong, but it’s not always right, either: Fund managers polled at the start of November have significantly hiked their allocation to equities and cut cash holdings to levels not seen since July, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.Of the 200 investors managing $576 billion of assets that were quizzed by the bank for its monthly fund manager survey, four-fifths now expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates this quarter.Some 43 percent of...

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CPI, Redbook Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Index, Containers, FHA Capital, EU Car Registrations, Japan

Part of the Fed’s mandate is to hit it’s 2% inflation target:Still at recession type levels:This is also what recession looks like:The anointed ‘driver of the economy’ continues to falter as previously discussed: Housing Market IndexHighlightsThe housing market index from the nation’s home builders shows weakness, at 62 for November and missing the Econoday consensus by 2 points. And compared to a revised October, the index is down 3 points. Yet readings in the report, though slowing,...

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PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Sales and Inventories

More deflation news here: PPI-FD Nothing good here, and of course sales = income, so lower sales = lower incomes. Also, the boost to prior months from car sales looks like it’s fading: Retail SalesHighlightsRetail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent, 2 tenths under the Econoday consensus. But when excluding vehicles, which slipped back after surging in prior months, and when also excluding gasoline stations, where sales once again fell on...

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Debt and Recession, Jolts

This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income and net financial assets that supports private sector deficit spending. United States : JOLTSHighlightsIn a positive sign for labor demand, job...

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