Tag Archives: GDP

Interesting, with no discount borrowings, the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents want a discount rate hike? Nine Fed banks called for discount rate hike: minutes Nov 24 (Reuters) — The number of regional Federal Reserve banks pushing for a hike in what commercial banks are charged for emergency loans rose to nine in October, minutes from its discount rate meeting showed. Eight Fed banks had voted to raise the discount rate at the prior meeting in September, a jump from five in July...

"The euro area economy is gradually emerging from a deep and protracted downturn. However, despite improvements over the last year, real GDP is still below the level of the first quarter of 2008. The picture is more striking still if one looks at where nominal growth would be now if pre-crisis trends had been maintained." So said Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in a recent presentation to the FAROS Institutional Investors' Forum.He's not wrong. From his presentation,...

The crowd is not always wrong, but it’s not always right, either: Fund managers polled at the start of November have significantly hiked their allocation to equities and cut cash holdings to levels not seen since July, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.Of the 200 investors managing $576 billion of assets that were quizzed by the bank for its monthly fund manager survey, four-fifths now expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates this quarter.Some 43 percent of...

Part of the Fed’s mandate is to hit it’s 2% inflation target:Still at recession type levels:This is also what recession looks like:The anointed ‘driver of the economy’ continues to falter as previously discussed: Housing Market IndexHighlightsThe housing market index from the nation’s home builders shows weakness, at 62 for November and missing the Econoday consensus by 2 points. And compared to a revised October, the index is down 3 points. Yet readings in the report, though slowing,...

More deflation news here: PPI-FD Nothing good here, and of course sales = income, so lower sales = lower incomes. Also, the boost to prior months from car sales looks like it’s fading: Retail SalesHighlightsRetail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent, 2 tenths under the Econoday consensus. But when excluding vehicles, which slipped back after surging in prior months, and when also excluding gasoline stations, where sales once again fell on...

This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income and net financial assets that supports private sector deficit spending. United States : JOLTSHighlightsIn a positive sign for labor demand, job...

This means they continue with their discount policy until their entire output capacity is being sold, and then continue to sell their full output capacity at ‘market prices’. That is, they no longer want the high priced producers to benefit from their willingness to to be swing producer and support prices by not selling their full output: Moving ahead, Opec — led by Saudi Arabia — plans to pump as much as it can towards meeting global oil demand, leaving higher-cost producers to make up the...

If the Saudis are looking to pump more seems they have to continue to lower prices:Sure looks like housing still can’t get out of its own way: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsMortgage applications are settling down after spiking and dipping sharply in volatility tied to new disclosure rules put in place last month. Both the purchase and refinance indexes fell an incremental 1.0 percent in the October 30 week with the purchase index up a very solid 20 percent year-on-year. Rates were...

Down to 1.9 for Q4, after being very close for Q1, Q2 and Q3: German Engineering Orders Hit by Lower Demand From China By Nina AdamNov 2 (WSJ) — Germany’s VDMA engineering federation said Monday that its “plant and machinery makers are battling against global markets’ adversities.” German mechanical engineering orders slumped 13% year-over-year in September, hit by a 18% drop in foreign demand. Foreign orders from outside the eurozone were down 7% in the nine months through September from...

My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth:This kind of personal consumption collapsed with the collapse in oil prices and oil capex: This is for September, and is slowing as previously discussed after permits peaked in June with the...