Tag Archives: GDP

Not so good since oil capex collapsed about a year ago: GDPHighlightsA downward revision to inventories pulled down the third revision to third-quarter GDP, coming in at an annualized and expected rate of 2.0 percent. Revised inventory growth, at $85.5 billion vs an initial $90.2 billion, was the most negative factor in the quarter, which is actually a plus of sorts as businesses held down inventories due to slowing sales, a move that should limit future disruptions in production and...

Blue chip consensus dropping quickly now, and today won’t help any:Remember a year ago when they said the oil price drop would be an unambiguous positive for the trade balance?;) Anyway, this is weak dollar stuff, vs the euro area current account surplus, which is strong euro stuff: Current AccountHighlightsThe nation’s current account deficit widened sharply in the third quarter, to $124.1 billion from a revised $111.1 billion in the second quarter. This is the widest gap of the recovery,...

Yes, up vs last year’s dip, but remain depressed and have beenheading south since early this year: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsApplication activity was little changed in the December 11 week, up 1 percent for refinancing and down 3.0 percent for home purchases. Year-on-year, purchase applications remain very high, up 34 percent in a gain that in part reflects a pulling forward of demand ahead of what is expected to be a rate hike at today’s FOMC. Rates were little changed in the week...

Retail sales = retail (gross) income and growth is still way down year over year, as per the charts. Also declining vehicle sales are highly problematic, as they were what was keeping a bad story from being that much worse. And not to forget when looking at year over year change oil and gas prices were already down quite a bit by this time last year: Retail SalesHighlightsOnce again the headline for the retail sales report understates underlying strength. Total retail sales rose only 0.2...

So they said capital goods were strong today. But as the chart shows it was just a zig up after a zag down of a volatile series that continues weak overall, especially when compared to the year before: NY/NYC ISM:

Yes, they were up, but there is a ‘seasonal’ aspect to it, including an air show, so the year over year chart is a bit more indicative of what’s going on and it’s still in negative territory. Also, vehicle orders declined, and inventories remained at levels that beg continuing production cuts. Factory OrdersHighlightsFactory orders bounced sharply higher in October and, together with the bounce higher for manufacturing in the industrial production report, confirm what was a very solid month...

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years For third consecutive quarter, U.S. CEOs cautious on economy Dec 1 (Reuters) — The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index fell 6.6 points to 67.5 in the fourth quarter. The long-term...

While demand for Saudi crude is up a bit, seems it’s still far below their presumed 12 million or so bpd capacity, and their strategy has been to lower their prices to the point where they are selling their full capacity: Nice bounce here, as the year over year comparisons get ‘easier’: RedbookHighlightsStore sales surged in the November 28 week, the week that includes Black Friday. Redbook’s same-store year-on-year sales tally jumped to plus 3.9 percent, more than doubling the pace of...

Another bad one, reversing last month’s suspect move up: Chicago PMIHighlightsVolatility is what to expect from the Chicago PMI which, at 48.7, is back in contraction in November after surging into strong expansion at 56.2 in October. Up and down and up and down is the pattern with prior readings at 48.7 in September (the same as November) and 54.4 in August.New orders are down sharply and are back in contraction while backlog orders are in a 10th month of contraction. Production soared...

Purchase apps have been flat to down for quite a while now,and the year over year comp will be reflecting that in a few months as well: United States : MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsAfter spiking sharply in the prior when rates jumped and triggered concern they would move even higher, mortgage application volumes eased in the November 20 week as rates settled back with purchase applications down 1.0 percent and refinancing applications down 5.0 percent. However, purchase applications,...