No letup yet as Saudi discounts continue: My RT interview on the price of oil here. Seems suddenly everyone is missing on revenues? Total sales (less inventory draw down)= GDP AT&T warns of revenue miss in Q3
Read More »Mtg Purchase Apps, Arch. Billings, Japan Exports, Bernie Article
After the up and down in front of the change in regulations new purchase apps are, so far, lower than before: Fits with the permit spike/decline story, and there was also this note: The multi-family residential market was negative for the eighth consecutive month – and this might be indicating a slowdown for apartments – or at least less growth. Japan export growth slows sharply, raising fears of recession By Tetsushi KajimotoOct 21 (Reuters) — Japan’s annual export growth slowed for the...
Read More »Credit check, ECRI WLI Growth Index, Rail Week
Still no sign of acceleration:Though still how historically, the growth rate in real estate secured lending has picked up some, probably reflecting fewer cash buyers and the modest increases in sales:This is up some as well. Note that it went up gradually into the last recession, probably because when things go bad people borrow for a while before cutting back:This is a new series. The latest leveling off might be an indication that the mini surge in car sales is over? ECRI’s WLI Growth...
Read More »Producer Prices, Retail sales, Business inventories, Atlanta Fed, Debt Ceiling Comment
Gives the Fed another dovish data point: PPI-FD Highlights Producer prices show wide weakness and may raise talk that deflationary pressures are building, not easing. The PPI-FD fell 0.5 percent in September which is just below Econoday’s low estimate for minus 0.4. Year-on-year, producer prices are falling deeper into the negative column at minus 1.1 percent. And it’s not all due to energy excluding which and also excluding food, prices fell 0.3 percent though the year-on-year...
Read More »China trade, WRKO interview
Total trade is down, but the surplus is still high and holding, which ultimately supports the currency: China : Merchandise Trade Balance Highlights Every month China’s trade data are reported in both the renminbi and U.S. dollars by the National Bureau of Statistics. The renminbi report comes out first, followed about an hour later by the more closely-watched U.S. dollar report. Since the August 11 devaluation of the renminbi there is a wider discrepancy between the two sets of data...
Read More »Lux GDP, Iowa, PC shipments, Lumber Prices, Oil Prices
Even Luxembourg peaked after oil prices collapsed: Ag slowdown imperils state revenue By Donnelle Eller Oct 12 (Des Moines Register) — Money coming into Iowa’s government coffers was flat the first quarter of this fiscal year, raising concern about how big an effect the slowing farm economy could have on the state budget. State revenues — income tax paid by workers and corporations, along with sales tax paid at malls, restaurants and bars, among other sources — hit $1.77...
Read More »Credit Check, Atlanta Fed, ECRI, Rail Traffic, Oil Comment
Growth rates still trending lower: Growth rate edging higher from very low levels: Back down to 1% for Q3: On October 5th Saudi price cuts were announced, as they increased discounts to various benchmark prices by substantial amounts. If the reports were accurate, the discount increases create a downward price spiral dynamic as previously described. However, since that announcement oil prices have increased approximately 10% driven by buyers reacting to various news reports...
Read More »Gas savings spent
As suspected, the drop in gas prices was pretty much a net 0 for GDP: Consumers are spending a lot more of their gasoline savings than estimated, report says Americans spend majority of money saved at the petrol pump JPMorgan: Consumers Already Spent Most Savings From Cheap Gas Pump Prices > The post Gas savings spent appeared first on The Center of the Universe.
Read More »Capex Revision, Gallup Spending Survey, PMI, ISM Non Mfg Index
A gauge of U.S. investment plans slipped more in August than initially estimated, giving a cautionary sign for the economic outlook. New orders for non-military capital goods outside of aviation fell 0.8 percent in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The government had previously reported that this gauge, which is a leading indicator of business investment, had fallen 0.2 percent during the month. Shipments of this category of goods also fell, declining a...
Read More »Saudi Price Cut, Domestic Car Sales, Commercial Paper
This is how they would start a downward price spiral if that’s what they wanted: Saudi Aramco Cuts Crude to Asia, U.S. Amid Weak Demand By Anthony Dipaola Oct 4 (Bloomberg) —Saudi Arabia cut pricing for November oil sales to Asia and the U.S. as the world’s largest crude exporter seeks to keep its barrels competitive with rival suppliers amid sluggish demand. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. reduced its official selling price for Medium grade crude to Asia next month to a discount of $3.20...
Read More »