Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Real aggregate payrolls and recessions  – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators for the overall economic health of the American working and middle classes is real aggregate payrolls for non-supervisory workers. This is kind of self-explanatory. Rather than measure hourly wages, this is the *total* amount of wages paid to non-supervisory workers, adjusted for inflation. It tends not to be noisy, i.e., there is a lot of signal...

August industrial production declines; overall decelerating trend consistent with recession in 2023  – by New Deal democrat Finishing today’s data dump, industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, declined -0.2% in August, while manufacturing production increased 0.1%. July’s sharp gains in both were revised slightly (-0.1%) downward:  While July remains the high water mark for overall production, manufacturing has not made a...

Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales, probably my favorite monthly economic datapoint, increased 0.3% in August. Since consumer prices rose 0.1%, real retail sales rose 0.2%: That’s certainly good news. Now here’s the bad news: July’s retail sales were revised downward by -0.4%, so that real retail sales, reported last month as +0.1%, are now shown down by a little less than...

I have been following New Deal democrat for a long time now. What NDd is reporting in this post is a big deal going into November’s Elections. In spite of all the negativism being reported by political interests, the economy is still moving forward. People are still working. I keep having to remind people about what 2008 was about. The last two years could have been far worse. run75441 Improvement in initial jobless claims continues  – by...

A lot of informational news deposited in my In-Box this week. Nothing this week is taken from anywhere else. I think last week, I included one news article from the outside. Political, Economic, Healthcare news are my mainstays. The usual economics and business news coming from different sources. Yes, inflation is still an issue. I do not believe Powell will not give us a soft landing he thinks he is capable of doing. One issue will help...

A bit of an introduction; Welcome to: “Annie Asks You:”  Seeking Dialogue to Inform, Enlighten, and/or Amuse You and Me. My interests are diverse: just about every aspect of what is sometimes called “current events,” with a frequent political emphasis (interrupted by breaks when I find matters have become unbearable); health and wellness; the environment; animal behavior and the human/animal bond; and other topics I come across that pique...

Another week of good news on jobless claims  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims had been in an almost relentless uptrend from the end of March through early August. Since then, they have completely reversed. This week initial claims declined another -6,000 to 222,000, and the 4 week average declined -7,500 to 233,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased another 36,000 to 1,473,000, a 5 month high: There was a...

“Coronavirus dashboard for September 7: the slow ebbing on the way to endemicity continues” I promised a COVID update, so I suppose I ought to follow through. Let’s start today with a graph of South Africa’s cases and deaths for the past year: South Africa is where BA.1 and BA.4&5 originated. You can see the huge spike in cases last December from original Omicron, and the smaller spike this June from BA.4&5. And yet deaths never...

As usual, what I found in My In-Box. Things I would like to write, have barely enough time to read, and pass them on to AB readers. Nothing here on the present battle between the DoJ and a neophyte Federal judge who lacks broad based experience as a federal prosecutor and in civil trials. I had an article, read it, and did not realize what I had read and who it applied to at the time. Then the storm hit. The text as written by an attorney who...

If I was going to guess, and I do not have to do so, it appears the US is retooling to update capabilities. Maybe they will put forth a plan to minimize inventory too. The source of all this retooling? Probably using up the money made during the pandemic and also government funds invested in infrastructure. And maybe, they are creating minimal setups to handle a variety of product like we did for one supplier of hoods to Chrysler. Automotive still...