Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Two of the most knowledgeable economists discussing events leading up to this year’s high inflation and the resulting interest rates. Of course, the Fed is reacting to the high inflation rates. If we look out into the future, probably early next year for a recession. OER should not be used by the Fed in setting policy. The Fed is currently chasing a phantom lagging menace. “Actual* rents and house prices lead the CPI measures by about a year.”...

Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat  – by New Deal democrat I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month. Those non-expectations were certainly fulfilled. Housing permits rose slightly, 1.4%, from last month’s 2 year low. Single family permits, which contain even more signal, declined -3.1% to the lowest level in 3 years excluding two pandemic lockdown months. The more...

People who quarrel with those with whom they mostly agree and focus on the “to be sure” paragraph of a column with which they mostly agree are a nuisance. I am such a nuisance. Jon Chait wrote an article noting that the GOP accepts antisemitism and the Democrats don’t. He makes his case. However, he has to deal with the case of Ilhan Omar and (among others) Jonathan Chait. I am going to quote at some length “A couple of years ago, Democratic...

The usual mix of articles on the internet. The important ones are healthcare and legal issues. The usual legal issues going on with trump who is flinging as much mud against the wall to confuse the issue of his attack on the US. Eventually, this will come to an end. Hopefully, there is an end where trump is prosecuted to the fullest extent he can be . . , jail. Jail, even if it is for one year. The other big issue I am seeing is commercial...

September industrial production comes in very strong  – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and troughs of US economic activity as determined by the NBER. In September total production increased...

A good article on hospital increasing healthcare costs, due to consolidations, supplies, and the associated hospital operational management. The article also engages in a book review of Big Med by David Dranove and Lawton Robert Burns (“Megaproviders and the High Cost of Health Care in America“). I will have to check the book out and advise later. Towards the end of the article, Shannon has included elements of Single Payer in her review-critique...

This is part of a continuing commentary on new centralized mail sorting centers. Postmaster General Louis Dejoy is implementing to increase distribution efficiency. Local post office carriers would drive here to pick up mail and then to their routes to deliver mail. It sounds efficient for the post office, but not so efficient for mail carriers. Louis DeJoy has the backing of the majority of commissioners on the Board at this point in time. Two...

I guess I am going to lose some of my writer reputation now as I look at the aspect of how certain “legal” migrants in San Antonio, Texas were treated by the governor in Florida. These people did not sneak into the US. They were granted asylum after presenting themselves to border guards, registered in the system, and released to a shelter. In turn they were scammed by a representative sent by Florida’s Governor DeSantis to go to Massachusetts where...

September real retail sales lay another egg  – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Which means that after factoring in +0.4% inflation in September, real retail sales were down -0.4%. Which is not good, because real retail sales have gone nowhere in 18 months, and have been down every single month since April with the exception of August, and are...

“September consumer inflation: primarily a function of the fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent” plus new cars”  – by New Deal democrat Since last November I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ equivalent rent,” seriously lagged, as in by a year or more, actual house prices as measured by the most popular housing indexes. At the time I wrote that OER was only up 3.1% YoY and core inflation...