Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again  – by New Deal democrat Revisions are a permanent hazard in reporting on economic data. That was very much in evidence in this week’s jobless claims report. Not only was last week’s number revised down by -17,000, but the initial report of 264,000 two weeks ago is now all the way down to 231,000! Big difference. Anyway, the current report indicates a weekly uptick of 4,000 to 229,000....

Financial markets in past fiscal crises; the “gold standard” of employment reports shows big deceleration in Q4 of last year – by New Deal democrat I have a post up at Seeking Alpha on how stocks, bonds, and consumers behaved during the 3 fiscal crises of the last decade. Hint: recessions are always disinflationary. Also of interest: the “gold standard” of employment data is the Quarterly County Employment and Wages report, which is not a...

The so-called Gephardt Rule (in honor of Representative Dick Gephardt who introduced its first version) provided that when the House agrees to a budget resolution, the Clerk shall prepare a joint resolution suspending the debt limit for the fiscal year covered by the budget resolution. It was repealed at the beginning of the 107th Congress, which had a Republican majority.The Gephardt Rule reflects the language of the 14th Amendment and would obviate...

A long and good NYT take on why poverty continues to exist, stays stagnant or continues to grow in one of the richest nations in the world and the most capable of all to end poverty. A good read. “Those who have amassed the most power and capital bear the most responsibility for America’s vast poverty. Political elites have utterly failed low-income Americans over the past half-century. Corporate bosses have spent and schemed to prioritize...

Housing update: sales have bottomed, prices in process  – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Yesterday existing home sales were released, but their economic impact isn’t all that important, except as it can confirm what has been happening with new houses under construction. And confirmation is what it gave us. First, *sales* of houses have bottomed, following the peak in mortgage rates over 7% at the end of last October....

Jobless claims: yellow caution flag persists  – by New Deal democrat In response to last week’s big jump in new jobless claims to 264,000, I wrote that it might be an outlier vs. the beginning of a rising trend. This morning claims fell back to their previous average range, at 242,000. The 4 week average declined -1,000 to 244,250, while continuing claims from the previous week declined -8,000 to 1.799 million: I’ve been paying particular...

This is an interesting commentary by David Zipper in his talk with Henry Grabar. Henry is the author of “How Parking Explains the World.” The AB title is from two questions. David was asking Henry to explain. If you have lived in or near a large city like Chicago, you are always on the hunt for a parking space unless there is a commercial garage around. If you are living in the suburbs and have to go into the city, parking is expensive. I now...

I do not believe there is anything shocking enough to get Americans to react to deluge of killings from bullet-spewing-weapons. No matter what happens, everything goes back to the way it was pre-mass murders. In this case we have had multiples of shootings of 4 or more which qualifies as a mass shooting. Our elected officials say their piece and quietly go back to the work of argument. US on track to set record in 2023 for mass killings after...

April industrial production looks great! – until you account for the March revisions  – by New Deal democrat The second of this morning’s three significant economic releases was April industrial production, and here the revisions were very important. In April total production increased 0.5% from March, but March itself was revised downward by -0.5%, so the net result was unchanged. Manufacturing production increased 0.9% from March, but...

By the time you read this, I will be on my way to Denver on a road trip. And just starting out at 7:00 AM my time. The goal is to assist my youngest son in getting established in a newer house. Dad has the know-how and the tools to do things. With that being said, my time at AB will be limited. I think Dan may be in and out when he is feeling well. I will take a moment or two to survey the place. If you comment, I will read it. Been a while...