Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Weekly Indicators for June 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Stocks are really buying the “soft landing” scenario, rising to repeated 12 month+ highs, apparently anticipating that corporate profits will be off to the races again. Meanwhile, when we look at consumer spending, which is 70% of the economy, restaurant reservations, which are one of the easiest things for...

trump obviously does not know when to shutup. But then, how do you punish an x-president? He is not the same as you or I who can be locked up with ease. Well today and as requested by the DOJ’s Jack Smith, a protective order was requested “limiting Trump’s access to evidence, in a move similar to what Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg” has done. This is being reported by Rolling Stone’s Nikki McCann Ramirez. Jack Smith is Moving to Muzzle Trump. The...

Real retail sales continue to suggest recession, decelerating employment gains  – by New Deal democrat The second of the three important datapoints this morning was retail sales for May. This is one of my favorite indicators, because it has several leading relationships, and is also an important component of one of the main data series that the NBER looks at in dating recessions. Nominally retail sales for May increased 0.4%. After adjusting...

I am XMilitary and my interpretation may not fit the scenarios described in these studies. If you know better, please explain your interpretation. This is not an easy topic to read. I was interested in the results of the studies and have read all of them. You have to wonder for them what happens a week later, a month goes by, a year drags on, and finally two or more years. The exposure to such situations will play over and over again for these...

Industrial production continues to falter in May  – by New Deal democrat My final update this morning is for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, which has most frequently corresponded with peaks and troughs in economic activity as determined by the NBER. The news for total production was not good, as it declined -0.2% in May, and March and April were revised -0.2% lower each. It remains -0.5% below its recent peak last...

This is taken from Prof. Heather’s June 15, 2023, Letters from an American. It begs the question of why can there not be another New Deal for Americans? When he accepted the Democratic nomination for president in July 1932, New York governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt vowed to steer between the radical extremes of fascism and communism to deliver a “New Deal” to the American people.  The so-called alphabet soup of the New Deal gave us the...

Initial and continuing claims edge closer to signaling recession  – by New Deal democrat There’s a blizzard of data this morning. I’ll report on retail sales and Industrial production later. But let’s start with initial jobless claims, which were unchanged this week at 262,000, the highest level in over 18 months. The 4 week average increased 9,250 to 246,750. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, increased 20,000 to 1.775 million:...

What is exciting about this op-ed is not just the topic but the writer Lisa Ansell. Ms. Ansell is the Associate Director at the Casden Institute for the Study of the Jewish Role in American Life. She definitely has the band width in adding to the fight for student loan relief for the 46 million students having no-way-out from predatory loans. Lisa is writing articles in support of Student Loan Justice Org. “I’m an independent. Here’s what...

Producer prices continue sharp deceleration; real average and aggregate nonsupervisory pay continues to increase  – by New Deal democrat Historically producer prices were more upstream of consumer prices, but since the 1990s and the employment of “just-in-time” inventories, that has been less the case. So I normally don’t pay too much attention to the monthly PPI. But for the record, PPI continues to confirm, and amplify, what we’ve seen in...

This commentary came by way of ltr a reader at Angry Bear. A pretty solid review of how drug prices and the resulting costs after insurance are still impossible to pay. That is, if the insurance, Medicare, Medicaid even pay for them in entirety or a portion. If the former is not the case, a patient is left with what they will not pay. Then there is the yearly deductibles and co-pays. Some will decide not to take these potentially life-saving...