Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Except for fictitious shelter and vehicle repairs, September inflation was moderate  – by New Deal democrat With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as anticipated has stopped decelerating. First I’ll look at the headlines, then the problem children. Total inflation (blue in the graph below) rose 0.4% for the month, but only 0.3% less food and energy (red). Less shelter...

September producer prices confirm economic tailwind has ended  – by New Deal democrat My strong suspicion has been that the tailwind of declining commodity prices, typified by the big decline in gas prices in late 2022 is what allowed the US economy to grow so well so far this year, blunting the effects of major Fed interest rate hikes. For the last several months, my focus has been whether that decline is over. This morning’s producer price...

I guess first I advise you to read this timely reminder (I swear I was going to write that but was less timely). I am now going to discuss what I think should be done for the people who live in the Gaza strip. I know it won’t happen First I confess that roughly 20 years ago (the day Ariel Sharon was elected prime minister) I decided that the Israeli/Palestinian case was hopeless and tried to tune out — people are suffering — but many people...

A note on Middle Eastern turmoil and gas and oil prices  – by New Deal democrat While we wait for producer and consumer inflation data later this week, here’s a note about gas prices. With the newest shock in the Middle East, conventional wisdom is that the price of oil and gas will spike. And maybe they will, but the truth is, because of the involvement of both market and geopolitical players, nobody really knows. Remember that Russia’s...

Timothy Snyder is a Yale historian. I’ve reviewed his books “Bloodlands” and “Black Earth” about the holocaust here and elsewhere. Snyder isn’t Israeli and he isn’t Jewish. But I think the comments he posted today on his Substack blog “Thinking about” deserve reflection. Here are the money grafs:“In evaluating what Hamas has done, it is important to remember that the atrocious crimes are not (or are not only) ends in themselves. They are utterly...

Weapons Gun Manufacturer Ditches Blue State, Moves South, America Insider Carver Malone. NRA Executive Director of Advancement Tyler Schropp . . . “This move is a testament to their enduring legacy, their commitment to firearm excellence, and to the importance of preserving America’s gun industry and Second Amendment rights in a fair environment.” “Representing millions of NRA members and gun owners, the NRA was proud to be the tip of the...

Scenes from the September jobs report: a look at leading indicators  – by New Deal democrat Today is a holiday, so no new economic news. So let’s take a look at some of the leading indicators I was tracking last week for the employment report, and some leading indicators for the economy within that report itself. In the JOLTS report for August last week, quits rose slightly from their 30 month low set in July, leaving the declining trend...

If you get a chance, wander over to Seeking Alpha and read New Deal democrat’s very thorough take on the economy. You can set up a fee, limited account there. AB Weekly Indicators for October 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While interest rates have continued to rise to multi-decade highs, shorter term indicators continue to chug right along, both on the producer and the...

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level  – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, rate. Two of those three came to pass. The third, jobs growth, emphatically did not! But it may well...

I saw an article online yesterday that claimed that over 1% of Americans are using semaglutides for weight loss. Since these drugs suppress appetite, the article was about the possible impact on food retail. Since global warming promises to destroy a lot of arable land on the planet, as well as ocean fisheries, reducing food consumption by overweight people strikes me as an unalloyed good. Since obesity is a risk factor for cancer, heart disease,...