Tag Archives: Hot Topics

CPI less shelter up only 0.7% in last 11 months (0.8% annualized rate)  – by New Deal democrat Let me cut to the chase right from the outset: except for the very lagging measures of shelter; motor vehicle parts, repairs and insurance; and to a lesser and waning extent, food; consumer inflation is now well-contained and close to the Fed’s target rate. First, let’s look at the headlines, with the monthly and YoY rates of change: Total CPI...

Pluralities of Americans support second Trump indictment, say charges are politically motivated: POLL, ABC News, Brittany Shepherd. According to Commenter Fred Dobbs; A Slightly confusing headline . . . ABC News – June 11 There are sharp partisan differences, according to the survey. A plurality of Americans think that former President Donald Trump should have been indicted by a federal grand jury on charges related to his handling of...

Not so long ago, I was working in Riethem-Weilhem Germany for the Germans, of course. A smaller ($1 billion) automotive company. My US position was in Cazenovia, NY where the Rockefellers used to hang out in their mansion on the south end of Lake Cazenovia. It is now called the Brewster Inn. While in Germany, they gave me a car and I would go touring all over southern Germany and into Switzerland. They would send me to the Czech Republic to visit...

Are personal consumption expenditures a helpful forecasting (or even nowcasting) metric? An overview  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve noted a number of times recently, in addition to payrolls the other positive datapoint keeping the economy growing is real personal spending. Here is what it looks like in total, plus broken down by goods and services for the past several years: The trend in both, at least since last June, is definitely higher....

Meanwhile, Trump is on the campaign trail busily trying to foment another insurrection/revolution a la Jan 6th. Can’t but still wonder if there isn’t something darker than the documents driving this desperation.

I can not tell you I worked remotely. It was always required I be in the building governing the operations of the facility. One of those 7AM to 7PM positions which also entailed calls from the other side of the globe at night. And then a trip back to the facility. The fun part were the trips globally to check out our associate facilities. I can understand the reasoning for working remotely. More gets done with less interruption. Google has...

Real business sales estimate: up 0.3% in April, but still below January peak  – by New Deal democrat Let me start today by re-upping this graph of the current state of the coincident indicators mentioned by the NBER as data that they track: As I wrote earlier this week, the two positives keeping the economy in expansion are real spending on services, and jobs. The other indicators are either flat or down from their peaks. In fact I’ve...

Along with getting paid what you are worth is the story, you need a college degree in order to get paid more. That is kind of true if you complete higher education in a field which pays more. What if you do not pick the right field and you are burdened with debt? Your pay is low and it may take a decade, or two or even three to dump the student loan. And if you do not get a degree? Some education “may” be better than no education. The pay may be...

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose sharply last week, up 28,000 to 261,000 (an 18 month high). The 4 week average rose 7,500 to 237,250, still lower than its April peak. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1.757 million: When we had a similar spike a month ago, it turned out to be a artifact of mis-reporting by Massachusetts, so take this with a...

Open Thread June 4, 2023, Angry Bear, angry bear blog Just a thought, and this new at this moment. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined with the court’s liberals in affirming a lower-court ruling finding a likely violation of the Voting Rights Act in an Alabama congressional map with one majority Black seat out of seven congressional districts in a state where more than one in four residents is Black. I believe SCOTUS...