Tag Archives: Hot Topics

If you are not reading New Deal democrat as he marks the progress of the economy over the last year, you really should start. The detail on what certain economic markers determine are in his weekly analysis done on a daily basis for various markers. Updating 3 high frequency indictors: no recession yet, but no paucity of yellow flags – by New Deal democrat Aside from the Fed’s rate decision which will be announced this afternoon, it’s a...

February existing home sales confirm prices have declined, but bottom in sales and construction may be in  – by New Deal democrat There were only two noteworthy takeaways from the February existing home sales report: (1) like mortgage applications, permits, and starts, existing home sales responded to lower mortgage rates (a decline from just over 7% to just above 6% between last October and January): (2) As usual, price changes lag...

Average and aggregate nonsupervisory wages for February 2023  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today, so let’s update a couple of income indicators important to average American working households. Namely, because we now have the inflation report for February as well as payrolls, we can update average and aggregate nonsupervisory wages. Average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory employees increased 0.5% on a...

Putting on a different hat today. My background includes supply chain management. I am look at what the industry experts are seeing and whether I agree with them. Much of what I have seen over the last two years is a repeat of 2008. We again are late to beginning issues. And again, we are waking up late to the beginning of the end of the same issues. No Cassandras amongst us. Good article . . . The Fed’s supply chain pressure gauge just went...

In your face …, Homeless on the High Desert, Gda says . . . October 21, 2017 in White Rose “In the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves...

Industrial production ‘meh’ in February, but down sharply since last summer; real manufacturing and trade sales forecast to decline in Febuary  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production was unchanged for the month of February, while manufacturing production rose +0.1%. But the bad news is that both were revised lower for the past 5 months, as shown on the two graphs below: As a result, industrial production (blue below) is now -1.8% below...

Housing construction: good news and bad news  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on housing construction contained both good news and bad news. First, the good news. Both permits (gold in the graph below) and starts (blue) increased, the former by 185,000 on an annualized rate, the latter by 129,000: It is very possible that January’s rate of 1.339 million permits annualized and 1.321 starts will be the low for this cycle....

I thought this would be interesting to our readers, especially those who are following the development of electric vehicles. Electric has infiltrated heavy equipment. This is Volvo’s latest all electric excavator: EC230. It is a 23 metric tonne (25 ton) machine. Not small. It is just like their diesel version but with batteries and an electric motor. 264KW of battery power. They are in the double digits for sales already. They have it structured...

Jobless claims: nobody is (still!) getting laid off  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -20,000 this week, back below 200,000 to 192,000. The 4 week average declined -750 to 196,500. Continuing claims, delayed one week, declined -29,000 to 1.684 million: For all intents and purposes, it is still the case that “nobody” is getting laid off. As the above graph shows, we are now almost one year past the lowest level of new...

Forecast: real manufacturing and trade sales are likely to set a new record for January  – by New Deal democrat One of the four monthly series of coincident indicators most relied upon by the NBER in determining whether the economy is in expansion or recession is Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. A significant problem with it is that reporting of the data seriously lags. For example, the result for January will only be reported more than two...