Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Revisions to Q4 GDP made real final sales worse, a potential portent of near in time recession  – by New Deal democrat A month ago, following another blogger, I took a look at real final sales, and real final sales to domestic purchasers, in the GDP – which increased less than 0.5% and just above 0% in Q4, and showed that in the past 60 years, only in the deep slowdowns of 1966 and 1987 were the numbers that low without having been followed...

Almost nobody is still getting laid off, but this week, it’s not good enough  – by New Deal democrat Today and tomorrow update the two remaining positive sectors of the economy: jobs and real personal income. And the first one continued to give excellent historical readings, but relatively speaking suffered in comparison to their all-time best readings from exactly one year ago. Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 to 198,000, while the more...

YoY house price gains continue to decline  – by New Deal democrat Today is a travel day so I have to keep this brief.  On a monthly basis for January, prices rose 0.2% as measured by the FHFA house price index. But because that was far less of an increase in January last year, YoY house prices as measured by the FHFA index declined to +5.3%. This implies that by January next year OER as measured in the CPI will only be up about 2.1% – well...

Sanford-Fairview merger is a symptom of a larger problem, MinnPost, Kip Sullivan. Minnesota has a hospital merger problem. But it didn’t begin last fall when Sanford Health and Fairview Health Services announced their intention to merge. It began in the 1980s and accelerated in the 1990s in response to mergers of unprecedented size among health insurance companies. By the early 2000s, Minnesota’s hospital sector had been transformed into a few...

I have heard of this. Have not used it. But, I wonder what will happen to our own creativity. We humans are supposed to be a curious, thoughtful, and an intelligent specious. We do the unexpected in different environments and situations which makes us unique. No two of us are alike or react the same. “It is a spectacular scientific puzzle that human beings are the sole species that seems to be able to think and feel beyond the limits of the scale...

3 graphic signs of financial stress  – by New Deal democrat The theme of my weekly “high frequency” economic indicators update over the weekend was the sudden deterioration in some measurements of financial stress. Tomorrow we’ll find out that house prices as measured by both the FHFA and Case Shiller have decline further, and that increases are substantially lower than as measured by the CPI, and on Friday we’ll find out what two of the...

Everything you didn’t know you need to know about the Postal Service’s new commercial, Save the Post Office, Steve Hutkins. Last week the USPS Link had an article — titled “Get a ‘Move’ on” — announcing the Postal Service’s new TV commercial. The commercial is called “Orchestrated Delivery,” and its theme is “We’re reinventing our network” — a reference to the way thousands of letter carriers across the country will soon be relocated from post...

There is now only one significant manufacturing datapoint that is not flat or down – but it’s the one the NBER relies upon  – by New Deal democrat I am increasingly of the opinion that at the moment, the only two economic data series that are important are nonfarm payrolls and the personal consumption expenditure deflator. That’s because almost every other important metric of the economy is either flat or declining. But payrolls keep chugging...

[embedded content] If you think there is abuse in our welfare system, in this case TANF, you are correct. Only, it is not the people for whom the system is suppose to be helping. In fact, there are state who are sitting on the money not having spent/distributed it as they should have. As usual, John does a great job on this issue. “States have broad flexibility over the use of state and federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)...

New home sales for February increase; likely bottomed last July  – by New Deal democrat Most of what you probably read elsewhere focuses on new home prices, which after finally declining -0.7% YoY in January, rebounded to +2.5% YoY. As is usual, prices  follow sales YoY with a considerable lag (note since prices are not seasonally adjusted, this is the right way to make the comparison): In fact if you’ve been reading me and following my rule...