Tag Archives: Hot Topics

The actual Big News in this morning’s housing report was – positive  – by New Deal democrat For the second month in a row, the biggest news in the housing report was not in the headlines.  Most of what you are going to read is about how bad housing permits and starts were, and that they are recessionary. And it’s true. In particular, the most leading and least noisy housing metric of all is single family permits, and they declined another...

Jobless claims continue their string of good news  – by New Deal democrat If yesterday’s economic data was bad, this morning’s was considerably better (I’ll post on housing construction later). Initial jobless claims declined 15,000 to 195,000, tied for their best number in almost 8 months. The 4 week moving average declined 6,500 to 206,000, the best number in over 6 months. Continuing claims, one week earlier, did increase by 17,000 to...

And the King of Coincident Indicators rolls over  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s second big – and big negative – report was for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators (I call it so because historically, it more often than not marks the exact month +/-1 that a recession begins or ends). In December industrial production declined -0.7%, and manufacturing production declined -1.3%. Even worse, both were revised down by...

December real retail sales: the worst in almost two years  – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite indicators, was updated this morning for December, and it was significant. It’s not just that retail sales declined -1.1% for the month both in nominal and real terms; it’s that both October and November were revised downward by -0.2% and -0.4% respectively, so the ultimate number is considerably worse than would otherwise...

“GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson Throws Ridiculous Shit Fit Over the Prospect of Losing Gas Stove,” Vanity Fair, Bess Levin I can remember when someone else said something else along the lines of: I’ll give you my gun when you pry (or take) it from my cold, dead hands.” Charleton Heston In his own unoriginal words . . . “If the maniacs in the White House come for my stove, they can pry it from my cold dead hands. COME AND TAKE IT!!.’” Ronny...

“Peter Drucker Sets Us Straight,” January 12, 2004 (cnn.com), Peter Drucker and Brent Schlender This is an oldie from 2004 which still has relevance to what has occurred and is occurring in the world today. Any number of times I have found myself fixing supply chain operations globally for various companies of different countries. Ninety-Four year-old guru says most people are thinking all wrong about jobs, debt, globalization, and recession....

“Social media and Damar Hamlin’s Collapse combine creating a vaccine misinformation field day“, Fortune, Ali Swenson, David Klepper, Sophia Tulp and The Associated Press “Unfounded claims about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines proliferated in the hours and days after Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin collapsed during Monday’s game, revealing how pervasive vaccine misinformation remains three years after the pandemic began. Even before...

In which I quibble with Prof. Alan Blinder about the main reason for the decline in inflation since June  – by New Deal democrat Alan S. Blinder is getting traction for an opinion piece published in the WSJ concerning the big decline in inflation since June. He acknowledges that“ energy inflation played a meaningful role” but that “the rest of the stunning drop in inflation in 2022 [is] due …  What did change dramatically was the supply...

The 15th time and McCarthy’s selling of his soul to legislate in favor of radicalism was the charm. Care to fetch, Kevin? Prof. Heather presents additional history and politics along with Weldon’s commentary, and Peter Dorman piece explaining Republican politics and the actors who display little incentive to compromise. A trifecta of excellent posts. January 7, 2023, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson (substack.com) Early...

December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues    – by New Deal democrat If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few months are to be believed, a recession is near. And if that is the case, we ought to see the leading elements of the jobs report begin to roll over. One of them, the average manufacturing workweek, clearly has. Arguably so has temporary...