Tag Archives: housing

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing  – by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy (mainly gasoline), which peaked in June 2022 and roughed in June 2023, and housing, which peaked in early 2023 and has been gradually disinflating since. The headlines, as you presumably already know, are that total inflation rose...

CNN Tells Us, Young People can’t Afford Homes Even Though more Young People have Homes now than when Trump was in the White House, CEPR, Dean Baker Major media outlets continually push the theme that young people can’t buy homes even though a larger share of households headed by someone under age 35 own homes today than when Donald Trump was in the White House. CNN pushed its entry into the contest for the best “Death of the American Dream” piece...

Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested  – by New Deal democrat For this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing permits and starts for December was generally positive, it is more likely that housing construction will decline rather than...

Chapter 7 of my open access textbook has just been released. This chapter focuses on homelessness experienced by racialized persons. A ‘top 10’ summary of the chapter can be found here (in English):https://nickfalvo.ca/homelessness-among-racialized-persons/ A ‘top 10’ summary of the chapter in French can be found here:https://nickfalvo.ca/litinerance-chez-les-personnes-racialisees/ The full chapter can be found here (English...

More economic news an d this time new single family housing. Completing the housing market picture for November, sales decline bigly, and prices remain down YoY   – by New Deal democrat Our final important pre-year end release was also the final item of housing data for the month, new home sales. To reiterate, the value of this metric is that it is the most leading of all housing metrics. Its big drawback is that it is very noisy and...

Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote of how manufacturing has faded somewhat as a leading indicator, at least in the sense that it takes a steeper downturn than it used to in order to forecast a wider downturn in the economy. Which makes the other big goods-producing sector, construction, even more important. And residential housing is the single most component of that.  And...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Registration is now open for a housing and homelessness study tour of London (UK) that I’m helping to organize. More information is available here: https://pheedloop.com/form/view/?id=FOR596K0XGYKSXE78

The bifurcation in the new vs. existing home market continues  – by New Deal democrat Last week we saw that sales of existing homes plummeted to a 28 year low, save for one month in 2010; but prices for the very limited number of such homes on the market rose 2.8% YoY. This morning we saw the exact converse happen with new home sales, which rose to a 12 month high of 759,000 annualized, up 83,000 from one month ago; while prices declined...

The last holdout in housing data has turned; ‘recession watch’ for next 12 months remains  – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that: “the biggest news was what happened with units under construction. The total declined slightly, as did single family units. But most significantly, for the first time since February 2021, multi-family units under construction also declined. “Why is this so important? Because, as this long term...

Why the public still views inflation as a major problem, despite the official numbers  – by New Deal democrat This is the topic I indicated last week I wanted to write about more at length.  Paul Krugman wrote last week about the disconnect between most economists, who see inflation declining, and voters, who still see inflation as a major concern. Here’s a couple of his tweets: As I wrote last week, the “shrinkflation” in new homes is very...