Tag Archives: New Deal Democrat

June’s JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for June captured a labor market that continues to move towards a new equilibrium, mainly via a gradual decline in job openings compared with labor availability. In other words, for the umpteenth time, “deceleration.” Job openings and actual hires both declined to new 2+ year lows, and voluntary quits also declined to just above a 2+...

Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead  – by New Deal democrat Now let’s deal with this morning’s big news: real GDP improved at a perfectly respectable 0.6% over the first Quarter of this year: This works out to a 2.4% annualized rate. Although it continues the slowdown from the white hot 2021 numbers, it would be average for the economy since the turn of the Millenium. As per my usual...

Weekly Indicators for July 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  At least when it comes to weekly measures of consumer spending, the “waiting for godot” recession seems to have finally arrived. Meanwhile other metrics have been picking up steam as to the near future. This suggests a period of wobbling ahead. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual...

How long until the historically tight jobs market reverts to trend?  – by New Deal democrat There are some very unusual cross-currents going on in the housing sector, revealed by yesterday’s existing home sales report. But it will take some time-intensive organization to present it to you, so I’m saving it for (hopefully) Monday. In the meantime, let’s take another look at the job market and how it compares with consumer spending. One of...

How long until the historically tight jobs market reverts to trend?  – by New Deal democrat There are some very unusual cross-currents going on in the housing sector, revealed by yesterday’s existing home sales report. But it will take some time-intensive organization to present it to you, so I’m saving it for (hopefully) Monday. In the meantime, let’s take another look at the job market and how it compares with consumer spending. One of...

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%, and continuing claims up 30.8%: Just as importantly, the average for July so far...

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%, and continuing claims up 30.8%: Just as importantly, the average for July so far...

June housing report: a tale a two diametrically opposed sectors  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that housing under construction, along with new vehicle sales, were two important reasons that no economic downturn had occurred yet. Today’s report on housing construction for June showed two almost diametrically opposed trends: single family houses had a sharp increase in permits and starts, while units under construction made a 12 month...

June housing report: a tale a two diametrically opposed sectors  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that housing under construction, along with new vehicle sales, were two important reasons that no economic downturn had occurred yet. Today’s report on housing construction for June showed two almost diametrically opposed trends: single family houses had a sharp increase in permits and starts, while units under construction made a 12 month...

Industrial and manufacturing production continue to falter  – by New Deal democrat I frequently call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because so often the turning point in this metric has been at the peaks and troughs of the economy as a whole. That has not been the case since last September, when this indicator last peaked. And it continued its declining trend in June. Total production declined -0.5%, and...