Tag Archives: New Deal Democrat

Real retail sales continue to be weak; continue to forecast weakening jobs reports  – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.6% in August. So did consumer inflation, and the difference rounded to -0.1% for the month. Here’s what the past 2.5 years since the 2021 stimulus...

The economic tailwind from falling commodity prices has likely ended  – by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll post on the August retail sales report later today.] Two days ago in my PPI and CPI overview, I wrote; “I am most interested in whether the producer price report tells us that the big decline in commodity prices is over. There have only been two increases in commodity prices in the past 12 months [ ] I suspect we’ll get #3 [on...

Weekly Indicators for September 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The tug of war between the headwind of high interest rates and the tailwind of low commodity and consumer inflation continues. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you right up to the present on the data and bring me a smal $$$ reward for my efforts. New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for August...

Weekly Indicators for August 28 – September 1 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The long leading indicators continue to forecast that a hard landing is out there, while the short leading indicators – aided by a sharp increase in consumer spending in the past few weeks – say it isn’t close to being here, at least not yet, As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the...

July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical chairs in employment ending?  – by New Deal democrat For the past 18 months, I’ve likened the job market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs put out by potential employers than there are job applicants willing to fill them. Also for many months, I have noted the gradual deceleration in that game. July’s JOLTS report not only continued that trend we’ve seen for the...

Frozen homeowners mean record low inventory, meaning existing home prices have stopped declining  – by New Deal democrat Before discussing this morning’s reports on existing home prices, let’s start with a look at new listings and total active listings of housing inventory, which are very instructive: This information is not seasonally adjusted, and obviously follows a seasonal pattern. The important thing to notice is that since late last...

Weekly Indicators for August 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat While I was away on vacation, the high frequency data continued to pour in. And so my Weekly Indicators post for the week is up at Seeking Alpha. There continue to be some very negative signs associated with interest rates, including important things like both purchase and refinancing mortgage applications, both of which are at or near 30 year lows. Not a good sign...

Initial claims improve weekly, continue to suggest slow weaking  – by New Deal democrat [Reminder: I’m still traveling, so with no economic news, don’t expect a post tomorrow.] Initial jobless claims declined to 230,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased to 236,750. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined slightly to 1.702 million: The YoY% change in the 4 week average, more important for forecasting purposes,...

Unlike homeowners, home builders can alter their product and (much more flexibly) their price point  – by News Deal democrat Yesterday I noted that home builders, unlike existing homeowners trying to sell their existing house, have flexibility in the size and amenities of the house they will build, as well as the price they are willing to set, based on commodity costs and profit margins. Today’s new home sales report for July confirmed that,...

Weekly Indicators for August 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat [First of all, a reminder: I am on vacation for the next week, so don’t expect daily posts, especially if no significant economic data is released.] My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While collapsing commodity prices have buoyed the shorter term leading indicators, the renewed increase in interest rates has made the long leading indicators even...