Tag Archives: Retail sales

The yellow caution flag on retail consumption is up  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales declined -0.1% in June, but since consumer inflation also declined -0.1%, real retail sales were unchanged for the month. There was an upward revision to May which helped out the comparisons slightly, but for the entire first half of this year real retail sales have been treading water at a level below last year. The below graph is normed to 100 as of right...

December real retail sales: the good economic news keeps on coming  – by New Deal democrat The good economic news kept coming with this morning’s retail sales report for December. Remember that this is one of my favorite indicators because, adjusted for population, it is a fairly good long leading indicator, and on a short term basis has a consistent record of leading the trend in employment. Nominally retail spending increased 0.6% for the...

Like retail sales, motor vehicles lead the way in industrial production  – by New Deal democrat As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this year. Industrial production as a whole rose 0.3% in September. But August was revised down by -0.2%, so on net it increased only 0.1%. Similarly, manufacturing production rose 0.4%, but with a -0.3% revision to August, was also only up...

A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales  – by New Deal democrat  As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and August’s already good 0.6% was revised upward as well. Since consumer inflation rose 0.4%, real retail sales rose 0.3% – still a...

July retail sales: gas and vehicle sales continue to dominate the trend  – by New Deal democrat As always, real retail sales tell us a great deal about what is happening in the consumer economy. July continued the recent trend since gas prices started declining over a year ago. Nominally retail sales increased 0.7%. Since consumer prices increased 0.2%, real retail sales increased 0.5%. Here they are compared with real personal expenditures...

June retail sales continue to falter, with the important exception of motor vehicles  – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about the 70% of the US economy that is consumption, as well as being a short leading indicator for employment. It has been faltering for the past year, and June was no different. Last month retail sales increased 0.2% nominally, but because consumer...

June retail sales continue to falter, with the important exception of motor vehicles  – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about the 70% of the US economy that is consumption, as well as being a short leading indicator for employment. It has been faltering for the past year, and June was no different. Last month retail sales increased 0.2% nominally, but because consumer...

Real retail sales continue to suggest recession, decelerating employment gains  – by New Deal democrat The second of the three important datapoints this morning was retail sales for May. This is one of my favorite indicators, because it has several leading relationships, and is also an important component of one of the main data series that the NBER looks at in dating recessions. Nominally retail sales for May increased 0.4%. After adjusting...

Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy  – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based on “fundamentals.” Basically, how much the average American is earning, and how much they are spending. Needless to...

March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer  – by New Deal democrat  After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales are one of the 4 big coincident indicators tracked by the NBER, and because retail sales are about 1/3rd of the total, and industrial...