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Late in 2014, when oil prices collapsed along with oil capital expenditures, it was widely proclaimed to be an unambiguous positive for the US economy. This included a forecast for a lower trade deficit due to lower oil prices. However, I suggested that, to the contrary, the trade gap might, if anything, widen. The way I saw it, the savings to the US consumer, which was largely ‘small money’ of a few dollars per week, would likely go towards the purchase of imports, while...

Just noticed this. PR has had over 500,000 move to the states for economic reasons: For many Puerto Rico residents, it’s time to leave the island Note: Puerto Rico is not included in the national employment report. FYI: Highlights Hurricanes didn’t scramble ADP’s sample too much in September with their private payroll estimate at 135,000 which is very close to Econoday’s consensus for 140,000. The result is down sharply from August but is still constructive and consistent...

I am not a libertarian nor am I a member of the ACLU, but I generally agree with them on the importance of free speech. This, I believe, is a real and growing problem on college campuses: Students affiliated with the Black Lives Matter movement crashed an event at the College of William & Mary, rushed the stage, and prevented the invited guest—the American Civil Liberties Union’s Claire Gastañaga, a W & M alum—from speaking. Ironically, Gastañaga...

from Lars Syll Research shows not only that individuals sometimes act differently than standard economic theories predict, but that they do so regularly, systematically, and in ways that can be understood and interpreted through alternative hypotheses, competing with those utilised by orthodox economists. To most market participants — and, indeed, ordinary observers — this does not seem like big news … In fact, this irrationality is no news to the economics profession either. John Maynard...

from David Ruccio The latest Federal Reserve Board’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (pdf) is out and the news is not good—at least for the majority of Americans. They’re falling further and further behind those at the top. Sure, on the surface, the results for the latest period of recovery from the Second Great Depression appear to be positive. Between 2013 and 2016, real gross domestic product in the United States grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, the civilian unemployment...

from Peter Radford I have tried to use diagrams to explain the vast impact that the never ending search for higher shareholder value has had on the American workplace. Here is my attempt to show what the old workplace looked like in terms of the benefits to a worker … This diagram demonstrates that a traditional job brought with it a package of “compensation” far beyond a basic wage. It also helps us understand why, as the cost of parts of the package rose rapidly — healthcare costs...

from Dean Baker Surprising no one, the Republicans outlined a tax plan that could mean huge tax cuts for the very rich with little or no tax reductions for the bulk of lower and middle income taxpayers. However in spite of their claimed “pro-growth” agenda, the plan included several provisions that will likely be a boon to the tax shelter industry and therefore an impediment to growth. The giveaways in the tax plan include the elimination of the estate tax, a great benefit to the tiny...

More data that shows we may already be in recession, and in line with the deceleration in bank lending: Large downward revision to last month was larger than this month’s gain: Highlights The construction spending report is often volatile and today’s results are an example. The headline is up a solid 0.5 percent in August but July’s decline, initially at 0.6 percent, has been downgraded sharply to minus 1.2 percent. Spending on residential construction rose 0.4 percent but...

A conference from the World Economics Association – 2nd October to 30th November 2017 Conference leaders: John B. Davis and Wade Hands Keynote papers Strategies in relation to complexities: From neoclassical Cost-Benefit Analysis to Positional Analysis Peter Söderbaum In this essay neoclassical Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is criticized as beinng too simplistic and also too specific in ideological terms. Positional Analysis (PA) is advocated as an alternative based on a definition of...