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Saudi output hasn’t materially changed. The previous strategy was to set the price low enough for output to increase. So seems the new oil minister has changed course is now setting price as high as he thinks he can set it without triggering development of higher priced oil.Let me suggest this GDP ‘forecast’ is about as high as it gets before substantially falling back, as it did last quarter. This is because it is an account of what’s happened in April and May based on...

The charts of all the components look just as bad.And note the collapse after oil capex collapsed:HighlightsThe small business optimism index rose 0.2 points in May to 93.8, slightly extending April’s 1 point bounce back from 2-year lows but remaining well below the 42-year average of 98. Four of the 10 components of the index showed gains in May, two were unchanged and four declined. Expectations that the economy will improve posted the largest gain, rising 5 points but...

The case for Britain to Remain within the EU is to my mind, largely a political case. The political forces pressing for a rupture with the Union are not on the whole progressive, although there are many sincere Leave campaigners on the Left of the spectrum. ‘Brexiters’ are mostly insular, nationalistic and sometimes racist, especially in relation to immigrants and refugees. With few exceptions the Brexit leaders are market fundamentalists, anxious to blame foreigners for the state of...

Registration for the event closes tomorrow at 23.59 “Proposals will be invited to lead, develop and administer a single Network Plus, with funding available of up to £4.6 million (100 per cent fEC) over 48 months, . . . “  Attendance at the event is not a requirement for submitting a proposal, but is strongly advised. Primary link: Understanding the Macroeconomy Network Plus   Background Longstanding criticisms of the economics profession, and particularly of the dominant paradigm in...

I was pleasantly surprised by this informed and moderate speech by Mario Draghi (though I do not agree with his suggestion that structural employment is 9,7%…). But then I read Billy Blog about the latest ridiculous nonsense by the European Commission (sanctioned by the ECB) and I was reminded that economic economic insanity lurks, well, not around the corner but has centre stage: “When policy becomes so distorted that nations with rampant deflation and elevated levels of unemployment...

from Dean Baker More than eight years after the start of the Great Recession, our labor market is far from recovering by most measures. At 5 percent, the current unemployment rate is not very different from its pre-recession level, but the main reason it is so low is that millions of people have given up looking for work and dropped out of the labor force. These people are no longer counted as being unemployed. And contrary to what is often claimed, this is not a story of retiring baby...

Rail Week Ending 04 June 2016: Rail Contraction Accelerates By Steven HansenJune 10 (Econintersect) — Week 22 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The improvement seen last week evaporated, and was likely due to the a holiday falling into different weeks between years. And this indicator: Cost cutting likewise reduces income:

from David Ruccio Every economic theory includes—or, at least, is haunted by—the distinction between productive and unproductive labor. The distinction serves as the basis of all their major claims, from the most basic theory of value to the conception of who deserves what within capitalism. The distinction began with the French Physiocrats, especially François Quesnay, who in his 1758 Tableau Économique made a distinction between the “Productive” Class (which consisted of agricultural...

In an interesting and highly readable recent Bloomberg blogpost Noah Smith distinguishes 4 kinds of macro: coffee-house macro, financial macro, academic macro and Fed macro. I like to add ’empirical macro’, i.e. the National Accounts, but that’s for another occasion as I just ran into a blogpost by Olivier Blanchard and a speech by Mario Draghi which nicely illustrate the differences between two of Noah’s macro’s, i.e. academic macro and what I want to rename ‘central bank’ macro (sorry,...

The deceleration in jobs openings released yesterday leads the deceleration in employment. Downward job revisions also mean lower income estimates, so watch for personal income and savings to be revised down as well. And it all started decelerating after oil capex collapsed at the end of 2014. Job Openings Hit Record High, But Hiring Fades In JOLTS Survey By Ed CarsonJune 8 (IBD) — Job openings matched a record high in April but hiring activity sank to the lowest since last...