Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Way below consensus and way bad: Chicago PMIThe Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in NovemberThere was also ongoing weakness in New Orders, which contracted at a faster pace, to the lowest level since May 2009. The fall in Production was more moderate but still put it back into contraction for the sixth time this year. The Employment component, which had recovered in recent months, dropped back below...

Another bad one: Pending Home Sales IndexHighlightsPending home sales in November declined for the third time in four months as buyers continue to battle both rising home prices and limited homes available for sale. The pending home sales index was down 0.9 percent but up 2.7 percent from a year ago. Modest gains in the Midwest and South were offset by larger declines in the Northeast and West.November’s dip continued the modestly slowing trend seen ever since pending sales peaked to an...

From bad to worse: Dallas Fed Mfg SurveyHighlightsTexas factory activity increased for a third month in a row in December. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 5.2 to 13.4, indicating stronger growth in output. Some other indexes of current manufacturing activity also reflected growth in December, but the survey’s demand measures showed continued weakness.New orders, an indicator of incoming demand, declined at a faster pace. The index has been...

Claims readings could be distorted because a smaller share of those potentially eligible for benefits are applying. The share of recently unemployed workers seeking benefits has fallen this year to just above 50%, according to the National Employment Law Project, a group that advocates for the unemployed.The rate is down from record high of almost 80% just after the recession ended.The application rate typically declines as expansions age, but the current pace is the lowest in 15 years....

Down to +1.3%must be the rate hike at work…;)

It all ended when oil capex collapsed about a year ago, as previously discussed: Merry Christmas!

Consumer spending revised down for last month. Seems best to wait for at least the first revision before commenting.;) And still waiting for the consumer to spend his gas savings?;) United States : Personal Income and Outlays HighlightsBecause of a glitch at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal spending portion of the personal income & spending report was posted early. Personal spending rose an as-expected and very respectable 0.3 percent in November with October revised 1...

Rail Week Ending 12 December 2015: Bad Data Continues And Marginally Worse Than Last Week Week 49 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic returned to contraction year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements and weekly railcar counts continued deeply in contraction. So who would’ve thought all that ‘monetary stimulus’ wouldn’t work???;)...

Another setback for economic forecasters as this index falls below 50, indicating contraction:Seems to me the Fed has gotten lost in its own confused rhetoric, but that’s another story. Point here is fed funds are a quarter point higher which will will make no discernible difference to macroeconomic outcomes, including the Fed’s employment and inflation mandates. FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS, FIRST SINCE 2006

“Often wrong but never in doubt”?;) Quote from Mario Draghi: But there is no doubt that if we had to intensify the use of our instruments to ensure that we achieve our price stability mandate, we would. There cannot be any limit to how far we are willing to deploy our instruments, within our mandate, and to achieve our mandate. And indeed the European Court of Justice has stated that the ECB must be allowed “broad discretion” when it “prepares and implements an open market operations...