Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

ZTE and the Iran Nuclear Deal The whiplash that many observers have felt on learning of President Trump’s about-face on China’s ZTE telecom company from condemning it as violating US national security and violating sanctions rules by selling to North Korea and Iran has been pretty easily explained by our soon thereafter learning that China has provided a mere half a billion dollars to a project in Indonesia where Trump interests are deeply involved. ...

Angry Bear made the list again on the Intelligent Economist list of top blogs. We are listed in the general category seventh from the top. I see some new names on the list. Congratulations to all contributors for making a fine publication. The Angry Bear is a multi-author blog. Each author has his or her own unique area of expertise. Authors include a tax law expert, historian, numerous economists, and business and financial professionals. The varying...

Real wage growth adjusted for gas prices One of the things I note from time to time in my discussions of wage growth is how much its fluctuation in real terms has been affected by gas prices. For example, in the middle of the worst recession in nearly 70 years, real wages actually went up! Why? Because gas prices fell from $4.25/gallon to $1.50/gallon in just a few months. So, what would a long term view of real wages look like if I took out the...

(Dan here…unemployment rates were about the same at 3.1 per cent (M) and 3.0 per cent (W). Taking a look at other measures of the success of an economy for the average person is well displayed here) Via Eeconomic Policy Institute comes this study: Since 2010, Minnesota’s economy has performed far better for working families than Wisconsin’s… At the time of the November 2010 elections, most states were still reeling from the economic devastation caused...

Sorry for the title which is pure click bait. I would like to discuss a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact proposed by Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Markus Brunnermeier, Henrik Enderlein, Emmanuel Farhi, Marcel Fratzscher, Clemens Fuest, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Hélène Rey, Isabel Schnabel, Nicolas Véron, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer in CEPR Policy Insight 91 “Reconciling risk sharing with...

Real wages and unemployment update: April 2018 Now that we have the inflation numbers for April, let’s update the wage situation for ordinary Americans. Real wages YoY are only up +0.2%: More significantly, they are still down -0.3% from their most recent high 9 months ago: They are also only up +0.2% for the entire last 2 years and 2 months. Increased consumption by ordinary Americans isn’t up because they are making more in real...

Two real economic consequences of the Trump presidency Next week we will be 1/3 of the way through Trump’s Presidential term. Last year I used to point out that it was really still Obama’s economy, as the GOP had failed to pass, nor Trump commence, any economic policy of consequence. That is no longer the case. In late December the GOP Congress passed and Trump signed their huge giveaway for the wealthy. Yesterday, Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear...

Economics: The View from 35,000 Feet Air travel offers an opportunity to catch up on one’s reading.  In my case, this means Marion Fourcade’s “Economics: A View from Below”, which had been sitting in my pile for at least two long weeks.  For those wondering about her title, she has been toying for several years with the actual/mock inferiority felt by other disciplines, such as her own sociology, in the face of the pretensions, authority and worldly...

Blowing Up The Iran Nuclear Deal This is probably Donald Trump’s biggest mistakes, his refusal to certify Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran and his fullout abrogation of it by announcing the reimposition of full economic sanctions against Iran, although we had not fully undone those sanctions anyway.  An immediate victim in the US of this action will be Boeing workers who were to benefit from a $3 billion contract Boeing had with...

In The USA, there is a striking negative correlation between the relative price of housing and GDP growth over the following 5 years Given this simple correlation, it is possible to forecast the great recession using just that variable and a trend. In fact, the forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession. This note examines other developed countries using the data set assembled by Oscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor...