Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Another strong month for real retail sales growth; to cope, employers are going to have to sweeten the pot to add employees Real retail sales, perhaps my favorite monthly economic indicator since they tell us so much about average consumer behavior, and are also a good short leading indicator for jobs, were reported this morning for September, and they were positive. Nominally retail sales increased +0.7%, after a +0.2% upward revision to +0.9%...

Farmer and Farm Economist Michael Smith on latest proposed business policies which can impact U.S. Farming. Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently went on CBS in order to sell the changes to the tax code provisions that would trigger events yet unknown at the $600 level,  and potentially beyond. I’ll leave this proposal up to you if it is a great idea or not. A dish washer purchase audit is probably bad tax policy, but I’ll...

and gasoline exports at a 26 month low . . . Blogger and Commenter R.J.S., Focus on Fracking: “Oil price is highest since 2014; natural gas price fell from 12 year high after largest inventory increase in 16 months” Oil prices finished higher for the 7th straight week after OPEC decided to only add the minimum to global supplies in the coming months . . . after rising 2.6% to $75.88 a barrel last week as rising global demand amid tight...

Bad Reporting On Latest Sveriges Riksbank Prize In Memory Of Nobel  So the recipients are half of it to David Card for his 1994 study with the late Alan Krueger, who committed suicide not too long ago, on minimum wages, and how raising them might actually sometimes increase employment.  The other half was split between Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens for developing econometric techniques for studying natural experiments, such as differences in...

The Passing Of Peter Flaschel And The Bielefeld School Of Macroeconomics  German economist Peter Flaschel died yesterday at age 78.  I am not sure precisely of what, although it was not Covid-19.  He had been in declining health for some years, with a heart problem at least.  Roberto Veneziani, from whom I learned the news, said that Peter “sounded tired” when he spoke with him a few days ago.  Ironically he spoke with him to tell him I had...

The Origin Of The Terms “Socialism” and “Communism”  This is one of those rare times when I post here about my academic research, but on this matter, well, I think this is of broader interest than the usual obscuranta that I usually study academically. So, my wife, Marina, and I were asked to contribute to a “Handbook on Comparative Economics.” We were supposed to have sent in our chapter by the end of September. There will be a conference on...

September jobs report: once again, two very different surveys net to a “relatively” disappointing gain As I previously indicated, two items I was particularly watching for in this morning’s report (Oct. 7) were (1) manufacturing hours and payrolls – to see if that white-hot sector was holding up in the face of supply bottlenecks, and (2) whether there were continued gains in leisure and hospitality jobs, or whether Delta had caused those to...

A slow grind in new and continued claims as Covid’s effects gradually transition from pandemic to endemic Jobless claims declined 38,000 this week to 326,000, still 14,000 above the September 4 pandemic low of 312,000. The 4 week average rose 3,500 to 344,000, 8,250 above their September 18 pandemic low of 335,750: Continuing claims declined 97,000 to 2,714,000, a new pandemic low: Here is the YoY% change of continuing...

Commenter and Blogger RJS, MarketWatch 666, “Trade Deficit Rose 4.2% to a Record High in August on Higher Imports of Pharmaceuticals and Services” Our trade deficit rose by 4.2% in August as the value of both our exports and our imports increased, but the value of our imports increased by four times as much . . . the Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and services for August indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods...

Michael Smith, Real Farmer and Farm Economist Ooh boy have we got a lot going on in ag world. Run sent me this a little while ago and I think this is important. The Tricky New Way That Big Ag Is Getting Farm Data, The Atlantic, Claire Kelloway, October 5, 2021 Big data collection is 100% not in the favor of the farmer by corporations. The more we see John Deere et al get tech heavy where they are collecting data about the equipment used...