Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

No signs of the international political crisis creating any Western economic crisis at this point No important economic data today, and no significant COVID updates over the weekend. Let me make a few comments and then turn to the bond market, particularly as it reflects the international situation.I have no more insight into the Ukraine matter than probably any other well informed average citizen. It feels like the closest Russia and the US have...

Oil tops $100 for first time since July 2014; SPR at a 19-year low; total oil + product supply at a 7 3/4-year low RJS, Focus on Fracking US oil price tops $100 for first time since July 2014; SPR at a new 19 year low; total oil + products supplies, including SPR, at a 7 3/4 year low; distillate supplies at 26 month low; natural gas drilling at a 26 month high You already have the petroleum status report part of this posted (ie, “EIA, Latest...

Never Mind Schrödinger’s Cat, Here’s David Bohm’s Dream I’ve had dreams of all sorts from time to time, but I don’t remember them too well. There was one dream that had a sort of philosophical content. I dreamt I was in a place that had a cat. I came into the room where this cat was talking to another cat, making a date to meet at a certain time. I said, “There’s something wrong here. What could it be? I know what it is: Cats can’t tell time!”I...

Consumers still spend, but real income declines, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to price shocks Nominal personal income was unchanged in January, while spending rose 2.1%. In real terms after inflation, personal income declined -0.5%, and personal consumption expenditures rose 1.5%, completely reversing December’s decline, and adding about 0.2%. I have stopped comparing them with their pre-pandemic levels (they are both well above that)....

Expressions that pass from hand to hand like sealed containers… In Herbert Marcuse and Planned Obsolescence I undertook to develop a theoretical foundation for ‘planned obsolescence’ from Georg Simmel’s analysis of the “preponderance of objective culture over subjective culture that developed during the nineteenth century.” My intuition has proved to be uncannily prescient. Besides the indirect influence of Thorstein Veblen — by way of Vance...

Original Sin And Planes In The Air  The original sin of the current catastrophe in Ukraine was the failure of the US and UK to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine when Putin’s Russia seized control of Crimea as they promised to do in the Budapest Accord of 1994 when Ukraine gave up the third-largest stock of nuclear weapons in the world.  They are also now in violation of that Accord now by their weak effort to save...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for February 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has added some elevated risk to a few of the numbers, but there is nothing that indicates any economic crisis. In general, there are accumulating signs that last year’s Boom is over; but on the other hand, no accumulating signs that a recession is anywhere near. In short, a...

War Comes to Kyiv | The New Yorker, Joshua Yaffa Interesting article that showed up in my inbox. This is a copy and paste ot it with minor editing. If you follow the link, there are other short articles to be read. I believe the takeaway from this article is the courage of Zelensky. The Ukraine will fall apart without him. Can the Russians be this bad militarily? The road into Kyiv is lined with military checkpoints, many of which are manned by...

RJS, Focus on Fracking, SPR at a 19 year low: total oil + products supplies, including SPR, at a 7 3/4 year low, distillate supplies at 26 month low Overall oil inventories finally rose after a million+ barrel per day jump in oil imports; commercial crude supplies saw their biggest increase since October 10th after pulling ~350k barrels per day out of the SPR, i.e. switching the deck chairs on the Titanic . . . other trends remained in...

One micron is about ten gold leaves thick. The gilded age, one. Since, and yet, there are those who would return the nation to that time. To their minds, it was the best of times; that all that need be done was rid the nation of the odious Progressive and New Deal Era laws that in fact had had nothing to do with the age’s demise, and the labor unions that formed up during the period; then let the laws of capitalism and of free markets take their...