Q3 GDP: good news for now, bad news for the future – by New Deal democrat I have to keep this note brief, since I am on the road. As you presumably already know, real GDP was positive for the Third Quarter, up 2.6% at an annual rate: Subject to revisions in the next several months of course, but for the moment, this puts to rest ideas that the US economy was in a recession earlier this year, since the decline was very shallow and not across all important indicators. The news on the leading components of GDP was mixed. Proprietors’ income, a proxy for corporate profits, which won’t be reported for another month, were up 1.5% (blue in the graph below). The “official” leading metric uses unit labor costs as a deflator, which we also
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: Hot Topics, NDd, politics, Q3 GDP 2022, US EConomics, US/Global Economics
This could be interesting, too:
Robert Skidelsky writes Lord Skidelsky to ask His Majesty’s Government what is their policy with regard to the Ukraine war following the new policy of the government of the United States of America.
NewDealdemocrat writes JOLTS revisions from Yesterday’s Report
Joel Eissenberg writes No Invading Allies Act
Ken Melvin writes A Developed Taste
Q3 GDP: good news for now, bad news for the future
– by New Deal democrat
I have to keep this note brief, since I am on the road.
As you presumably already know, real GDP was positive for the Third Quarter, up 2.6% at an annual rate:

Subject to revisions in the next several months of course, but for the moment, this puts to rest ideas that the US economy was in a recession earlier this year, since the decline was very shallow and not across all important indicators.
The news on the leading components of GDP was mixed.
Proprietors’ income, a proxy for corporate profits, which won’t be reported for another month, were up 1.5% (blue in the graph below). The “official” leading metric uses unit labor costs as a deflator, which we also don’t know yet. But if ULC are in line with the past several quarters (red), real proprietors’ income was probably flat:

Finally, real private residential investment, the was housing is included in GDP, took a bad hit:

Housing is just about screaming “incoming recession!” at this point.
So: good news for the present, bad news for the near future.
While I’m at it, here’s this week’s update on jobless claims:

No big move here. No real deterioration, but no improvement either.
“First comments on Q2 GDP, no Recession Yet.” Angry Bear
“Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated,” Angry Bear