The Angry Bear

Weekly Indicators for August 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat [First of all, a reminder: I am on vacation for the next week, so don’t expect daily posts, especially if no significant economic data is released.] My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While collapsing commodity prices have buoyed the shorter term leading indicators, the renewed increase in interest rates has made the long leading indicators even...

Pharma’s strike-from-all-sides attack on the IRA could be decided by the Supreme Court, PharmaVoice, Alexandra Pecci Pharma Voice reports Merck & Company and Bristol Myers Squibb in separate lawsuits are filing a multi-directional attack on Biden’s IRA using the first and fifth amendment as the basis for their filing. Industry lobbyists and co-litigants have joined with the two companies and include the Eighth Amendment in their filing in...

The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates  – by New Deal democrat As you may have already read elsewhere, interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury just made a new 10+ year high. Perhaps more importantly, 30 year mortgage rates made a new 20+ year high: Both rates are slightly above their previous highs from last October: Almost always in the past, interest rates peaked *before* the Fed finished hiking interest rates....

Successful industrialists financial Wall Street bankers whose business practices were often are considered ruthless and unethical, capturing portions of the market, and bleeding it dry. Not much left of the hollowed-out companies other than a name and the empty buildings they once occupied. Good commentary on Simon and Schuster being bought by KKR. Is Robber Barrons still a term in use? How private equity is destroying the labors of love,...

While Medicaid’s enrollment purge plows on . . . GoozNew, Merril Gooz A few weeks ago, I critiqued the inequities that would inevitably result from a bare-bones universal insurance plan offered by two economists, which I dubbed it “Medicare-for-all lite.” There was one part of their plan that merits serious consideration: Automatic enrollment for everyone in some form of health insurance. The idea isn’t new. But it is particularly relevant now...

Initial claims travelin’ man edition: still below cautionary levels  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims were 250,000 last week. The 4 week average increased to 234,250. Continuing claims with a one week delay were 1.716 million. Most importantly, YoY the4 week moving average is up 9.5%: This is well below the 12.5% YoY increase necessary to trigger a new caution. Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline...

Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production increased 1.0% in July. Its manufacturing component increased 0.5%. Total production is still down -0.6% from its peak last autumn, while manufacturing is down -01.%: These are not recessionary numbers.  It’s worth emphasizing that the unspooling of pandemic related bottlenecks is significantly affecting...

Will a high dose of Ivermectin for 6 Days impact Covid? As a biochemist, I find the argument of a lack of mechanism for Ivermectin as a justification for prescribing it for COVID particularly pernicious. While it is correct to say that we didn’t know the mechanism for aspirin for decades after we knew it worked (one could say the same about the smoking and lung cancer), that’s not a logical basis for prescribing a drug. The gold standard is a...

TANSTAAFL. There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. Someone pays, somehow. The standard textbook example is pilots who refill their plane at a gas station that offers them a “free” steak dinner while charging five cents a gallon more than another station at the same airport. The pilot and co-pilot get $50 dinners for free, the gas station gets an “extra” $150 for the gas sold, and everyone is happy. I believe this story is better at...

“The statement received pushback from environmentalists concerned that constructing new infrastructure to transport more fossil fuels will allow more oil to be extracted and burned, contributing to climate change. “Appeals court strikes down Utah oil railroad approval, siding with environmentalists,” msn.com. Additionally, communities in neighboring Colorado including Eagle County and the city of Glenwood Springs — which filed a brief in support...