The Angry Bear

Intensified decline in manufacturing, but another sign of a bottom in residential construction  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. The ISM manufacturing index has a 75 year record of being a very reliable leading indicator. According to the ISM, readings below 48 are consistent with an oncoming recession. And there, the news is not good. Not...

I took this article and broke it into different parts. If it does not make sense, blame me and not the Insider author. This is a different topic but along the lines of student loans which Alan Collinge of Student Loan Justice has been fighting. Republicans support these companies. Democrats are pushing back. Fomer students are holding the five and six digit debt. And no one has fixed the damn problem allowing OPMs to do this. DeJa’Vu just like the...

New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule  – by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads the Sahm Rule. Just in case you’re not familiar with the Sahm Rule, it is a rule of thumb started by economist Claudia Sahm, stating that the economy is in a recession when the 3 month average of the unemployment rate rises...

There are many things which could be cut in the present Debt Ceiling bill which alleviate the unnecessary need to cut assistance to those who need it. Food assistance for very low-income older adults is not one of them. A million or so of older adults aged 50-54 will or are now at risk of losing food assistance, including a large number of women. Some of our legislators are in drastic need of the same physical labor to which many the fifty-something...

Kip Sullivan sent this article to me a while back and it was posted. I am starting to see more activity on Value-based-care as an alternative to Fee For Service. The question arises as to how does one measure value received from the care under this regime. It is difficult to measure the value and what value found can not justify value-based care. A quick introduction to the topic of this article. Hence a repost of this article and one other...

New Deal democrat has been doing JOLTS reports for a long time. Some of you may understand what NDd is discussing and some may not. Just a quick one liner to help you understand why this is important. JOLTS is a monthly survey of U.S. job vacancies, hiring, and job separations released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration  – by New Deal democrat It is...

I’m still trying to get my head around what happened with the debt ceiling. Is the proposed deal a win for Biden and the Democrats?   The conventional wisdom is that it was.  Catherine Rampell argues that the Republicans achieved little in the way of policy that they could not have gotten through the regular budget process.  They also failed to take away any of Biden’s signature policy victories.  There are some questions about whether the...

What looked like it could be catastrophic for the nation, its people, and its economy, the results coming from a so-called too old eighty-year old man negotiating the US budget appears to be far better than expected. And far better than what Repubs are offering up. Now it is up to the House to put the budget on the floor for a vote. McCarthy has done what little he could do. The radicals have to pass it or take the blame for global economic...

I agree with the author’s reasoning for domestic supply manufacturing. I have battled the issues with pharma, medical supply, and also food manufacturing. Batches are problematic as well as the USDA and FDA labeling requirements. You wait for approvals. As of August 2019, 28 percent of the manufacturing facilities producing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs – drug substances formulated into tablets, capsules, and injections) to supply the...

House prices may have bottomed, while YoY price increases (leading inflation) have declined to lower than their 25-year average  – by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted house prices through March as measured by both the FHFA (light blue in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (dark blue) Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the latter by 0.2%. This is the second straight increase in a row, and suggests that house prices may have bottomed:...