The Angry Bear

Scenes from the March jobs report; and the Great Resignation as “Take This Job and Shove It!”  It’s been a little while since I took a more in-depth look at the jobs market, so let’s take a look. As I wrote last Friday, we are at historic lows in both the unemployment and underemployment rates. In the graphs below, the current values of each are normed to zero for easy comparison: Historically few people are involuntarily unemployed....

Manufacturing positive, but no longer red hot; inflation-adjusted construction spending is flat In addition to the jobs report, Friday gave us updates on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. While the index remained positive, its leading new orders component stumbled. In March the index declined from 58.6 to...

Catching up with Steve Hutkins at Save the Post Office. The removal of US Blue Mail Collection boxes is controversial especially during an election year. It forces people to find other place to mail letters, bills, ballots, etc. Back in 2020, there was quite a bit of conversation going on about such happening and a slowing down of postal service once things were mailed. I do know it takes a day or so longer for First Class mail to get to the west...

As announced by the U.S. Department of Education April 6th: “An extension of the pause on student loan repayment, interest, and collections has been made through August 31, 2022. This is done to allow for the economy to continue to improve and COVID cases continue to decline. President Biden has made clear the continuing need to respond to the pandemic and its economic consequences, as well as to allow for the responsible phase-down of pandemic...

You ever have those facts wedged in your mind so deep that you feel that it is the bottom of your foot truth? That full contact, no holds barred, yes I know this? It happens to most of us. And recently me. A few days ago I wrote about the strata of agricultural land use with a bit of this nonsense: For context, about 425 million acres is total farmland in the US, with three quarters going to direct croppage and the last quarter to livestock and...

Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: BA.2 likely only causes a ripple; and on track for record low daily deaths This is a good time to look at the impact – or, better speaking, the lack thereof – of the BA.2 Omicron variant in the US. Nationwide the 7 day average was 28,961 yesterday: This is the lowest since last July, and lower than all but about 3.5 months since the end of March 2020. Only late spring 2020 and from mid-May through...

You had to be around in 1973 to understand what happened when the Middle East decided to cut back on oil. At first, they thought the US would react harshly and invade. We did not. Instead, there were long lines where I lived. If I was near my university on the outskirts of Chicago, the lines did not exist. So, I would fill up my Datsun 510 and scoot home. At times I would take a gas can with me, get it filled, so we could fill up the tractor at...

I am thinking about computers taking over the world. Given my age, for me, the classic reference is “Terminator” in which “SkyNet” becomes self aware and takes over the world. As made movie sense at the time SkyNet was a US Department of Defence project as was the ARPAnet mother of the mother of the mother of the World Wide Web. Frankly, I find that implausible now. If it were a DOD project, Congress would have appropriated funds to start it, then...

March jobs report: yet another strong showing for jobs and unemployment; while strong wage growth nevertheless likely lags inflation Here are the three main trends I was most interested in this month: 1. Is the pace of job growth beginning to decelerate?  2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating? 3. Are the leading indicators in the report beginning to flag? The answers were: 1. The 6 month average of monthly gains, which...