The Angry Bear

Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data  – by New Deal democrat I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha, looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequency indicators I track weekly as to consumption and employment. Click over and read the whole article, but here is a little taste: the below is what the YoY% change in the 20-day total of payroll tax withholding has been in has been as of...

It has been widely noted that Trumpy Republicans have largely accepted vote tallies and conceded defeat.  There have been few strong claims of fraud or election theft by major candidates (the main exception so far appears to be Kari Lake), and no efforts that I am aware of to mobilize protests against the election results, much less violent protest. So that raises the question we have been grappling with for 6 years now:  to what extent is Trump...

“‘Kill them’: Arizona election workers face midterm threats,” (msn.com), Linda So, Peter Eisler and Jason Szep Some more information on counting votes. Guess where? Election workers in Arizona’s fiercely contested county of Maricopa faced more than 100 violent threats and intimidating communications. This was occurring during the run-up to Tuesday’s midterm Election. Most of the threats alleging election conspiracy theories were promoted by...

As usual I am reading a lot about how the latest shocking election outcome shows the polls were wrong and that polling has become unreliable (no links I’ve been reading this on Twitter). This is not a new assessment of the polls. It was widely argued (again Twitter now I cite Yglesias by name) that the polls were probably wrong. The alleged errors are exact opposites. Before the election, it was widely (to universally) asserted that polls implied...

Three different people, same crappy emotion? Trump has been an electoral liability for the Republican party for at least the last 3 elections, and possibly 4 (depending on what you think would have happened in 2016 without Trump).  So far, his power over MAGA voters and his spitefulness – his evident willingness to tear down Republicans who show disloyalty – has kept Republican elites largely in line.  But some Republicans are beginning to...

I googled [what the hell is happening in Brazil] and the only ones of the firsts 10 hits on the election are on how the military found no evidence of fraud. (your googling will vary as google shows me what it expects me to click and now knows much more about me than I do). It is very alarming and sad that the military has expressed an opinioni on a matter which is none of their business (I don’t blame the generals, I think they had to, see...

I think I am sitting in the worst possible place one could be pre-election . . . Arizona. The potential insurrectionists were trying to take over the state. We prevailed only by a few votes. People I know are angry Democrats won. By all intents and purposes this is not over. We still need to resolve January 6. Annie has a good message of hope on this Sunday. I hope you enjoy the read. “Post-Election Day Musings…The Sun Begins to Shine” –...

“Weekly Indicators for November 7 – 11″ at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although a few indicators are holding up, in the past month there has been almost continual deterioration in several employment and consumption metrics. These are particularly important for whether the consumer is pulling back, typically a signal that a recession is close to imminent. As usual, clicking over...

Infidel753: “Immediate post-election observations,” Infidel753 Blog There was no red wave.  There was no blue wave.  Most incumbents got re-elected.  Whichever side ends up controlling the House and Senate will have a razor-thin margin. Turnout was very high on both sides and the process ran smoothly pretty much everywhere, so it was a big win for democracy. If the Republicans get the House majority, the margin will be small and the...