The Angry Bear

Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom New jobless claims declined 16,000 to 223,000 last week. This is still 35,000 higher than the low of 188,000 set on December 4; but on the other hand is remains among the lowest weekly figures for the past 50 years. The 4 week average declined 2,000 to 253,250, which is 53,500 above its 199,750 low set on December 25: Continuing claims were unchanged at 1,621,000, 66,000 above their low of 1,555,000...

RJS: Oil supplies at a 10 year low; SPR at a 19 year low; total oil & products supplies at 7 1/2 year low after across-the-board draw  The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 4th indicated that after a drop in our oil imports, a jump in our oil exports, and an increase in our refining, we again had to pull oil out of our stored...

Gas prices sound a consumer warning I got a note yesterday from a fellow forecaster pointing out that crude oil prices have once again made new 7 year highs. This is something I also highlighted in my “Weekly Indicators” column on Saturday. As I write this on Wednesday morning, West Texas Intermediate Crude trades at slightly under $90/barrel, yet another new 7+ year high.  How much trouble does this portend for the economy? Potentially, a...

I find myself disagreeing completely with Ezra Klein. This is very unusual and I feel compelled to blog about it (note you should not feel at all compelled to read this post which is self therapy). I am commenting on a twitter thread here. I am going to cut and paste a lot (because I hate Twitter and don’t want you to go there (as I do many times a day)). It began with Larry Summers who wrote “There are things MMT says that are true and...

Coronavirus Dashboard for February 8: Omicron declines sharply; did Delta provide protection against the worst outcomes? As I mentioned yesterday, I haven’t posted a Coronavirus dashboard in awhile, and with Omicron in rapid retreat, it’s time for an update. To begin with, deaths are presently peaking at roughly 2450 a day, while nationwide cases are down almost 2/3’s: There are over a dozen States where numbers are now down close to, at, or...

Noah Smith (and many others) is irritated by a puff piece about Stephanie Kelton and modern monetery theory MMT by Jeanna Smialak in the New York Times. I am not interested in Smialak’s article. I think that Noah sums up his critique here very well “The article then demonstrates that it has little notion of what separates MMT from mainstream thinking: ‘M.M.T. theorists argue that society should feel capable of spending to achieve its goals to...

Student Loan Cancellation will not Benefit the Wealthy, Alan Collinge, Student Loan Justice Org. Alan Collinge History In 1972, allegations about students abusing bankruptcy3 courts were beginning to make headlines. Major newspapers were publishing anecdotes about students who took out large college loans. Supposedly then, young graduates or students quickly declared bankruptcy to avoid paying them off. The Congressional Commission on Bankruptcy...

Public opinion in many countries is shifting against COVID-19 precautions and restrictions – even against vaccine requirements.  This has some libertarians declaring victory.  Not only are they declaring victory, they are claiming that the rollback of restrictions shows that they were right all along, and that the restrictions were foisted on us by a corrupt government that should be stripped of its powers.  Some at least flirt with the idea of...

Can Ukraine Become A New Austria?  In this Sunday’s Washington Post, columnist David von Drehle suggests that a way out of the difficult Russia/Ukraine situation would be for Ukraine to become like what happened with Austria in 1955 and since; it formally became officially neutral, not joining either NATO or the Warsaw Pact, and has remained so since.   For Ukraine, this would in effect grant Putin his demand that Ukraine not join NATO, although...