The Angry Bear

 – by New Deal democrat This morning’s personal income and spending report for August was positive month over month both in nominal and real terms, but the major story was in the revisions. Personal spending is the essentially the opposite side of the transaction of retail sales. Both have been tracking relatively closely since the end of the stimulus-fueled spring spending spurge of 2021, as shown in the m/m% changes below: Real...

The little weasel Miguel Cardona has a grin on his face. They have been screwing these people over for decades. Department of Education did not check the fine print for FFEL loans. And now that Mohela said they will lose money, they yank the carpet out from under 800.000 people. God forbid they screw over a Federal Loan Servicer. What is Mohela: MOHELA has worked with student loans for several decades as a private lender. It has been a...

What if someone told you that one man from one mega law firm chose the last three appointees to the U.S. Supreme Court? In a new book, ‘Servants of The Damned’, David Enrich did just that, and much more. That one man was Don McGahn; the law firm, Jones Day. The suggestion leading to his being enabled to do so came from one Sen. Mitch McConnell. McGahn, a super lawyer from a powerful law firm with a right-wing agenda (better yet, a federalist Society...

Any given recession, food assistance needs increase. In an inflationary environment where purchasing power declines, food assistance needs increase. During a pandemic, well you get the idea. What is lost in that narrative is that the foods available to the general public, are same available to food assistance beneficiaries. The only difference is the bank account that it’s draws through the debit card, and a few other stipulations like beer and...

This popped up on “Letters from an American” just last night. I was too tired to read Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson’s article. So, I missed out on a good message about the income of America’s population. This is a recent commentary by the not-so nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office in September 2022. The thrust of the article? “Trends in the Distribution of Family Wealth, 1989 to 2019.” Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson’s Introduction; Since...

The positive trend in jobless claims continues For still another week, initial jobless claims continued their recent downtrend. Initial claims declined -16,000 to 193,000, a 5 month low. The 4 week average also declined -8,750 to a new 4 month low of 207,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, declined -29,000 to a 2.5 month low of 1,347,000: The downtrend of the past 2 months is almost certainly a positive side-effect of lower gas...

by Joseph Joyce (Capital Ebbs and Flows) Has the Third Era of Globalization Ended? Behind the headlines forecasting a global economic recession there is another narrative about the end of globalization. This reflects political tensions over trade, the impact of the pandemic on global supply chains and the shutdown of economic ties with Russia. But dating the beginning and end of the most recent era of the integration of global markets poses...

This is my second post on the recent troubles with Sterling. In the first, I discussed vibes, mood, and animal spirits. I do think that is the best way to think about what’s going on, but I promised to write as an economist typically do (not as we all our in this case). The basic facts are that Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a mini-budget revision including elimination of the 45% income tax bracket. Oddly many financiers who would directly...

Interest rates, the yield curve, and the Fed chasing a Phantom (lagging) Menace There’s a lot going on with interest rates in the past few days. Mortgage rates have increased above 7%: This is the highest rate since 2008. Needless to say, if it lasts for any period of time it will further damage the housing market. The yield curve has almost completely inverted from 3 years out (lower bar on left; upper bar shows a similar curve in April...