The Angry Bear

The return of the “Oil Choke Collar”! For the first five years after the end of the Great Recession, one of the staples of my analysis was the concept of the “oil choke collar.” By that I meant that typically recessions had occurred after there was a sudden and sharp upward spike in the cost of gas, inflicting such pain that consumers cut back drastically on other spending – causing a prompt economic downturn. But what if, instead, gas prices rose...

RJS, MarketWatch 666, “CPI Rose 0.6% in January on Higher Prices for Food, Clothing, Electricity, Used Vehicles, & Furniture; Annual Inflation Now at a 40 Year High” The consumer price index rose 0.6% in January, as higher prices for food, clothing, rent, electricity, used vehicles, airfares, furniture, and appliances and were only slightly offset by lower prices for gasoline, utility gas, and car and truck rentals . . . the Consumer Price...

I always tour the sites to catch the news about what is happening in the world today. You should have access to these articles if interested. The blockade by truckers is here, SCOTUS, truckers and supply chain, Seniors, etc. An occasional opinion expressed. Have a good rest of the weekend. “About those right wing [tr]uckers,” Digby, Hullabaloo Features Brian Beutler’s Big Tent , “The Northern Blights” “You’ve no doubt heard by now about...

Things Getting Very Worrisome  Yes, signs regarding a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine have gotten much worse in the last few days. I am hearing from my wife that Russian media are now claiming there are lots of US troops in Ukraine. Such a claim, not even backed up by some fake video, would clearly serve as an excuse for an invasion. There are also reports out of the Russian media that Putin feels that he was not treated well in Beijing....

Real wages continued to stall in January, portending a consumer slowdown, but don’t reverse Let me follow up on yesterday’s post about the January CPI by talking about “real” wages. Since both average real hourly wages and consumer inflation increased in January by 0.6%, real hourly wages for non-supervisory workers were flat month over month: Real wages have been essentially flat since June 2020, with the exception of last winter and...

“‘Love everyone and forgive everyone, including yourself.’ Jim Henson touched us all. Whether it was Sesame Street, The Muppets, or some of his later work, Jim Henson had a place in almost everyone’s childhood. Yet he influenced an entire generation of creators too. That’s why, in 1990, after Henson met his end, Disney honored Jim Henson with this cartoon. It was sent directly to his former company.'” Credit Walt Disney Enterprises. Mickey...

RJS, MarketPlace 666, US Trade Deficit Rose 1.8% in December and up 27% in 2021 Our trade deficit rose 1.8% in December as the value of both our exports and our imports increased, but our imports increased by more….the Census report on our international trade in goods and services for December indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit increased by $1.8 billion to $80.7 billion in December, from a revised November...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for February 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  Last year my task was easy, because the issue was whether to describe the economic Boom as “red hot” or “white hot.” With interest rates having risen between 1/2% or 1%, depending on which type being measured, and inflation having eaten up wage increases, the task this year is more challenging. But the end of a...

Jump in January consumer prices seals the deal on Fed interest rate hikes, New Deal democrat Consumer prices increased 0.6% in January, the third time in four months that it has come in over 0.5%. Energy increased 0.9%, which isn’t a horrible monthly rate, but YoY energy prices for consumers are up 27%, just below their YoY peaks in 1974, 1979, 2005, and 2008 – not coincidentally 3 out of 4 of which coincided with deep recessions: ...

I just finished Reaching Beyond Race by Paul Sniderman and Edward Carmines.  They argued – in 1997 –  that people concerned with racial equality should focus on enacting policies that increase opportunities for the disadvantaged generally, using arguments that, as the title suggests, reach beyond race.  This is a common enough viewpoint, but they make a number of interesting points about public opinion on racial justice, including the following:...