The Angry Bear

Jobless claims start out 2023 where they left off in 2022 – as positive  – by New Deal democrat It took a little while for FRED to post this data today, but with that reason for a delay . . .  Initial jobless claims started off 2023 where they left off in 2022, with another good print. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 205,000, while the more important 4 week average declined -1,750 to 212,500. Continuing claims also declined, down -63,000...

This commentary by Charles Gaba was up earlier this year. What Charles is doing is issuing a warning about this batch of Covid. People have tossed caution to the wind, not boosting for less than adequate reasons, not practicing safe social practices, and not making up in public crowds. “Say hello to XBB.1.5: The Red/Blue COVID Death Rate Divide is no more . . . for the moment,” ACA Signups, Charles Gaba As noted in November: The graph...

Consumer inflation remains dominated by gas prices (good) and shelter (bad)  – by New Deal democrat Declining gas prices continue to do wondrous things for the economy. In December they declined from roughly $3.50 to $3.10/gallon. Meanwhile the phantom menace of Owners’ Equivalent Rent continues to drag “core” inflation higher. Details below. Total inflation: -0.1%m/m , +6.4% YoY (12 month+ low), +0.9% since June, 1.8% annual rate Core...

“Social media and Damar Hamlin’s Collapse combine creating a vaccine misinformation field day“, Fortune, Ali Swenson, David Klepper, Sophia Tulp and The Associated Press “Unfounded claims about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines proliferated in the hours and days after Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin collapsed during Monday’s game, revealing how pervasive vaccine misinformation remains three years after the pandemic began. Even before...

An in-depth look at production and sales: evidence of peaking in both  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I took an in-depth look at employment. Today let’s take a look at two other important coincident indicators that are looked at by the NBER for guidance as to whether or not the economy is expanding or in recession: production and sales. As I’ve mentioned several times in the past month, as of the latest readings it looks like industrial...

Dan Crawford: The passing of Barkley Rosser is terribly sad news. Angry Bear has had connection to Barkley since 2006 at least. He was also instrumental for helping Bruce Webb and the topic of Social Security gain traction nationally. Tyler Cowen posted a link to his profile “Man in motion,”- JMU at James Madison University. “What economist J. Barkley Rosser can teach us about how we adapt to a changing world.“...

‘Right-to-repair’ advocates skeptical of John Deere agreement, NPR, Joe Hernandez Pulling from NPR’s Joe Hernandez’s article and adding some of my automotive background. to explain. Like automobiles, tractors have gone high-tech using on-board computers and semi-conductors to run various systems within cars and also farm tractors. This includes systems such as fuel injection to oxygen ratios, ignition, timing, temperature, and the overall...

Scenes from the December jobs report: more deceleration  – by New Deal democrat The only significant economic data this week will be released on Thursday, with both CPI and jobless claims. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the jobs data we got last Friday. As indicated in the title of this post, the theme was “deceleration.” First, here is the long term YoY look at total employment (blue), employment in goods-producing industries...

In which I quibble with Prof. Alan Blinder about the main reason for the decline in inflation since June  – by New Deal democrat Alan S. Blinder is getting traction for an opinion piece published in the WSJ concerning the big decline in inflation since June. He acknowledges that“ energy inflation played a meaningful role” but that “the rest of the stunning drop in inflation in 2022 [is] due …  What did change dramatically was the supply...

Economist David Zetland lets us know our place of birth has a much larger impact on our success or failure globally than what we suspect. It is not solely up to us to be successful. The country of our birth has a great impact. The understanding of our luck to be where we are globally impacts our view of people’s success who our born into other countries. “Born (un)lucky?” The one-handed economist, David Zetland I was born an American and...