The Angry Bear

It’s Called Stealing – What Big Retailers and Meat Packers are Doing to Cattlemen Kind of surprised by the shock and awe of the media over monopolistic power exerted on and by Supply Chains. They can be monopolistic and abusive because they are efficient. Just a rambling conversation “Protests have always been a part of America and this one at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge appears to be no different. Although the exhibited...

Fox News and white grievance In his recent book “Kill Switch,” Adam Jentleson, a former aide to the late Senator Harry Reid, persuasively argues that the Senate filibuster arose by accident when a rule revision in 1805 failed to include the “previous question” resolution, which would require a vote on the issue pending because it was thought superfluous. He also shows by overwhelming evidence that for the past 200 years, by far the single most...

Housing ends 2021 with a bang Housing ended 2021 with a bang, as housing starts (blue in the graph below, left scale) increased to 1.702 million annualized, and permits (gold) to 1.873 million annualized, in both cases the highest level since 2006 with the sole exception of last March / January, respectively. Single family permits (red, right scale), which are the least noisy, increased to 1.128 million annualized, the highest reading since May,...

SCOTUS Denies Trump’s Demand To Withhold Docs From Jan 6th Committee DONALD J. TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES v. BENNIE G. THOMPSON, IN HIS OFFICIAL CAPACITY AS CHAIRMAN OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE SELECT COMMITTEE TO INVESTIGATE THE JANUARY 6TH  ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES CAPITOL, ET ALThe application for stay of mandate and injunction pending review presented to THE CHIEF JUSTICE and by him re-ferred to the Court is denied.“To be...

RJS, Focus on Fracking, Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a new 19 year low; commercial crude inventories fall to 45 month low, total US oil supplies lowest since January 20th 2012; implied gasoline demand at 11 month low; largest jump in drilling rigs since April 1st as the Haynesville and the Marcellus are targeted for oil This Week’s Rig Count The number of drilling rigs running in the US increased for the 58th time over the past 69 weeks...

This doesn’t justify the NYDH guidance. In a recent post, I criticized the New York Department of Health for using race/ethnicity as risk factors when determining eligibility for Paxlovid without providing evidence that Black/Hispanic people are more likely to die if they get Covid-19 than similar White people. My criticism is not based on a Panglossian view of racial/ethnic equality.  I think it is quite unlikely that Blacks/Hispanics will...

This is my second comment on Noah Smith’s substack. Today he wrote about something I should know about — macroeconomics. As always, I am amazed by Noah’s knowledge (it is his former former field of academic research). I don’t know for sure if his article is available only for subscribers, so I will try to summarize a little. His thoughts:”the U.S. is confronting another unexpected macroeconomic shock. Although the economy is doing great in terms...

“I shall Defend The Rights Of Parents” This is what new Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin said when he made an executive order on the first day of his term to ban school systems from having mask mandates. Some systems will not go along, including that in Arlington and mine in the city of Harrisonburg. He claims to be defending the rights of parents, somehow not noting that he is violating the rights of parents who do not want their children be...

by New Deal democrat Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022 My short-term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha. This forecast is based on the same system I have successfully used since before the Great Recession. Most forecasters, deliberately or not, cherry pick data points to fit a previously arrived at an intellectual point of view, and simply project the current trend ahead (or else default to...