The Angry Bear

This wasn’t supposed to be a website that hosts popularity contests where if you lose, you die. [embedded content]

Core inflation using house prices rather than imputed rents  – by New Deal democrat Later this morning existing home sales will be reported for October, which will mainly be of interest to me only for what happened with prices, and secondarily whether the problem of low inventory which has existed for 3 years is moving in the direction of resolution. In the meantime, yesterday Jason Furman got some traction, and amplification by Paul...

Housing permits and starts continue to fall, but housing under construction continues to (slowly) rise  – by New Deal democrat  The monthly numbers for housing permits, starts, and single family permits all declined this month. Permits (red in the graph below) declined -38,000 annualized to 1.526 million annualized, and starts (blue) declined -62,000 annualized to 1.425 million, both the lowest since summer 2020. Single family permits...

Before you start chattering at me about this and that detail, let’s get an understanding. I am supply chain and manufacturing or manufacturing and supply chain. If there was a job opening in either and with appropriate pay, I was more than likely in. Companies hiring me usually did so because they had a problem. When I solved it in a couple of years, I was also expendable after 2 more years. Usually a recession would roll around, the company was...

“Open thread Nov. 15, 2022,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog

Other things were on the ballot this election also. In Maricopa AZ, Proposition 469 failed. The proposition would have raised the sales tax a half a cent to fund roads in two counties. In the City of Maricopa, the increased half-cent tax passed. In the county (Pinal), it failed. Meanwhile city residents are whining about road conditions, accidents, and drivers. Speed limits, stop signs, and red lights are just a suggestion. A statewide...

October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!”  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales, my favorite consumer indicator, was reported this morning for October. And it was a good number, up +1.3% nominally, and up +0.5% after adjusting for inflation: On the bright side, this was the highest absolute number since April. On the down side, retail sales have still gone essentially nowhere for the last 18 months.  As a result, YoY retail...

How hard should the Fed hit the brakes to bring inflation down?  The answer to this question depends, in part, on just how damaging you think inflation is.  And one reason to think that inflation is harmful is simply that most people – normal people, not CEOs or financiers – seem to really dislike it.  If most people think steady inflation of 8% is worse than steady inflation of 2%, that is, in fact, a (non-dispositive) reason to think that 2%...

The Audition Commodity Richard Serra and Carlotta Fay Schoolman produced the video, “Television Delivers People” in 1973. It manifests a critique of television mass media that was subsequently defined by communications scholar, Dallas Smythe as the “audience commodity” but the outline of which had already been presented by him in 1951 in the Quarterly of Film, Radio and Television: The troublesome fact is that under our uneasy...

 – by New Deal democrat I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because more often than any other metric it coincides with the peaks and troughs of economic activity as determined by the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions. Unlike retail sales, the news this morning for October was not so good. While manufacturing production did increase +0.2% to a new post-pandemic high, overall production declined -0.1% for...