The Angry Bear

Real personal income and spending hold up (thank you, lower gas prices!) but still consistent with onset of recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for November shows why I pay more attention to real retail sales as a forecasting tool. First, to the data: personal income increased nominally by 0.3% in November, while nominal spending increased only 0.1%. Since the deflator for the month was 0.1%, that means real income...

Durable goods orders appear to have peaked  [Note: I’ll post about personal income and spending, as well as new home sales, later.] I normally don’t pay much attention to the monthly durable goods report, but this morning’s report for November appears significant. That’s because durable goods spending has been one of the few short leading indicators to have continued to improve – until now. Here’s the long term view: New factory orders...

The new OpenAI chatbot is fun to mess around with.  (You can sign up for a free account here.)  But is it smart? I asked it an easy math question, based on Euler’s polyhedron formula.  Euler discovered that the number of edges of a polyhedron is equal to the number of faces plus the number of vertices minus 2:  E = F + V – 2.  So, for a cube, the number of faces is 6, the number of vertices or corners is 8, and the number of edges is 12, which is...

Initial claims continue in range; why they will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4 week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750. Continued claims, with a one week delay, declined 6,000 to 1.670 million: To state the obvious continued good news, it remains the case that almost nobody is getting laid off.  Also continued good news is that claims, and...

From the Washington Post comes this map of temperatures over much of North America, a result of the artic blast and winter storm begun today, Thursday. In the Boston area rain is expected. The temperature tonight actually is rising from from about 43 degrees F. to the low 50’s F. , to continue throughout Friday, and then eventually falls to 12 degrees F. by Saturday morning. How is your weather? ...

A recent paper finds that drivers who are not vaccinated against COVID are substantially more likely to be involved in serious auto accidents than vaccinated drivers. In response, Jay Bhattacharya, an author of the Great Barrington Declaration and a prominent opponent of lockdowns and vaccine mandates, tweeted that the study “should not be used by automobile insurers as a basis to discriminate against the unvaxxed.” Well, why not?  One argument...

November existing home sales: prices have unequivocally turned down  – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales do not have much actual economic impact, since the primary economic activity generated by housing is the construction. But they do help tell us a great deal about pricing. For the record, sales continued their relentless decline this year, down to 4.09 million on an annualized basis, down almost 1/3rd from their recent February...

by David Zetland (originally published at The one-handed economist) I’m not shy about criticizing the weakest elements of economics (there are many), so it’s sometimes a good idea to remind myself (and you!) of the strengths of economics, i.e., those characteristics that make it useful. Here’s an example based on a test-question I just asked: You are a baker facing higher energy (natural gas) prices. Higher prices result from (choose one...

Another blast from the past before I get into some newer information. It is still very relevant. It lays a foundation for other work I intend to do. This should come as no surprise as I have written on the topic of Healthcare Costs and Its Drivers before. In particular, the overriding statistic from an earlier post was 50% of the increase in healthcare costs was due solely to price increases between 1996 and 2013 (JAMA, Factors Associated With...