The Angry Bear

I haven’t paid a lot of attention to the controversy surrounding Congressional stock trading, but 1) I assume it’s a real problem and 2) it’s obviously going to be very difficult to get a strong reform bill through Congress.  So here’s a proposal:  why not craft a strong bill – bright line rules, no exceptions – that will take effect in 10 years?  Of course, it would be best to enact a strong bill today, but given the difficulties involved, why...

Great insight: Putin continues to demonstrate just how easy it is to manipulate narcissists. https://t.co/ngaird6ugK— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) October 19, 2022Who else can we add to the list?  Trump, Musk.  Anyone else?

Two of the most knowledgeable economists discussing events leading up to this year’s high inflation and the resulting interest rates. Of course, the Fed is reacting to the high inflation rates. If we look out into the future, probably early next year for a recession. OER should not be used by the Fed in setting policy. The Fed is currently chasing a phantom lagging menace. “Actual* rents and house prices lead the CPI measures by about a year.”...

This just popped up (October 19, 2022) at Scotus Blog. Just as expected the right filed to block student loan relief. Initially filing at the 7th District COA and another filing to SCOTUS just in case they lose at the 7th District. Apparently, they feel it is unfair students get any relief to loans which if they were car loans, etc., they could receive bankruptcy relief. In effect, denial of bankruptcy for these types of loans discriminates against...

Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat  – by New Deal democrat I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month. Those non-expectations were certainly fulfilled. Housing permits rose slightly, 1.4%, from last month’s 2 year low. Single family permits, which contain even more signal, declined -3.1% to the lowest level in 3 years excluding two pandemic lockdown months. The more...

People who quarrel with those with whom they mostly agree and focus on the “to be sure” paragraph of a column with which they mostly agree are a nuisance. I am such a nuisance. Jon Chait wrote an article noting that the GOP accepts antisemitism and the Democrats don’t. He makes his case. However, he has to deal with the case of Ilhan Omar and (among others) Jonathan Chait. I am going to quote at some length “A couple of years ago, Democratic...

The usual mix of articles on the internet. The important ones are healthcare and legal issues. The usual legal issues going on with trump who is flinging as much mud against the wall to confuse the issue of his attack on the US. Eventually, this will come to an end. Hopefully, there is an end where trump is prosecuted to the fullest extent he can be . . , jail. Jail, even if it is for one year. The other big issue I am seeing is commercial...

September industrial production comes in very strong  – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and troughs of US economic activity as determined by the NBER. In September total production increased...

I’m ambivalent about this Ezra Klein piece: Trump’s efforts to stay in the news, however, are matched by Biden’s efforts to stay out of it. Biden gives startlingly few interviews and news conferences. He doesn’t go for attention-grabbing stunts or high-engagement tweets. I am not always certain if this is strategy or necessity: It’s not obvious to me that the Biden team trusts him to turn one-on-one conversations and news conferences to his...

Brett Crosby currently serves as Region IV Director for the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, representing Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. He taps into the current trends in the beef market from a producer side, and I couldn’t have said it any better than he has in his opinion piece in Northern Ag Network. Here’s Brett: A blog post published by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on July 12, 2022, claimed that Congress is “rushing” to consider “aggressive...