The Angry Bear

“Social Security and Medicare finances bolstered by growing economy,” (axios.com), Neil Irwin. Two different pieces of information going on here. The pie chart below shows were we were in 2021 for Medicare. I have not compared the pieces of information to see if they conflict. I do not have charts for Social Security, I can only imagine in my head the outcome. A million people died so the funds go to the living. The trustees of the programs...

(Dan here…Hat tip to Peter Dorman for the notice and Anonymous for the link at Econospeak) [embedded content] Tags: Gonzo Jornakism, Hunter Thomson

Existing home sales decline to recessionary levels; prices have clearly turned down; low inventory still a problem  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this morning, my primary interest in existing home sales at this point is prices. [Note: graphs below for sales and prices does not include October] For the record, existing home sales fell to a new 2.5 year low (i.e., since the teeth of the pandemic lockdowns) of 4.430 million...

This wasn’t supposed to be a website that hosts popularity contests where if you lose, you die. [embedded content]

Core inflation using house prices rather than imputed rents  – by New Deal democrat Later this morning existing home sales will be reported for October, which will mainly be of interest to me only for what happened with prices, and secondarily whether the problem of low inventory which has existed for 3 years is moving in the direction of resolution. In the meantime, yesterday Jason Furman got some traction, and amplification by Paul...

Housing permits and starts continue to fall, but housing under construction continues to (slowly) rise  – by New Deal democrat  The monthly numbers for housing permits, starts, and single family permits all declined this month. Permits (red in the graph below) declined -38,000 annualized to 1.526 million annualized, and starts (blue) declined -62,000 annualized to 1.425 million, both the lowest since summer 2020. Single family permits...

Before you start chattering at me about this and that detail, let’s get an understanding. I am supply chain and manufacturing or manufacturing and supply chain. If there was a job opening in either and with appropriate pay, I was more than likely in. Companies hiring me usually did so because they had a problem. When I solved it in a couple of years, I was also expendable after 2 more years. Usually a recession would roll around, the company was...

“Open thread Nov. 15, 2022,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog

Other things were on the ballot this election also. In Maricopa AZ, Proposition 469 failed. The proposition would have raised the sales tax a half a cent to fund roads in two counties. In the City of Maricopa, the increased half-cent tax passed. In the county (Pinal), it failed. Meanwhile city residents are whining about road conditions, accidents, and drivers. Speed limits, stop signs, and red lights are just a suggestion. A statewide...

October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!”  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales, my favorite consumer indicator, was reported this morning for October. And it was a good number, up +1.3% nominally, and up +0.5% after adjusting for inflation: On the bright side, this was the highest absolute number since April. On the down side, retail sales have still gone essentially nowhere for the last 18 months.  As a result, YoY retail...