The Angry Bear

The Passing Of Peter Flaschel And The Bielefeld School Of Macroeconomics  German economist Peter Flaschel died yesterday at age 78.  I am not sure precisely of what, although it was not Covid-19.  He had been in declining health for some years, with a heart problem at least.  Roberto Veneziani, from whom I learned the news, said that Peter “sounded tired” when he spoke with him a few days ago.  Ironically he spoke with him to tell him I had...

The Origin Of The Terms “Socialism” and “Communism”  This is one of those rare times when I post here about my academic research, but on this matter, well, I think this is of broader interest than the usual obscuranta that I usually study academically. So, my wife, Marina, and I were asked to contribute to a “Handbook on Comparative Economics.” We were supposed to have sent in our chapter by the end of September. There will be a conference on...

September jobs report: once again, two very different surveys net to a “relatively” disappointing gain As I previously indicated, two items I was particularly watching for in this morning’s report (Oct. 7) were (1) manufacturing hours and payrolls – to see if that white-hot sector was holding up in the face of supply bottlenecks, and (2) whether there were continued gains in leisure and hospitality jobs, or whether Delta had caused those to...

What did you know and when did you know it? J. Michael Luttig, the former United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit: “I was honored to advise Vice President Pence that he had no choice on January 6, 2021, but to accept and count the Electoral College votes as they had been cast and properly certified by the states…. I believe(d) that Professor Eastman was incorrect at every turn of the analysis in...

Updated US wealth distribution data shows how bad the Great Recession and its aftermath were, and how effective the pandemic assistance has been   The desert of new economic data this week continues today. But last week the Fed released its quarterly data on wealth distribution in the US, and it shows an important point about the efficacy of the emergency pandemic assistance. Let’s take a look. Let’s start with the raw absolute levels of...

A slow grind in new and continued claims as Covid’s effects gradually transition from pandemic to endemic Jobless claims declined 38,000 this week to 326,000, still 14,000 above the September 4 pandemic low of 312,000. The 4 week average rose 3,500 to 344,000, 8,250 above their September 18 pandemic low of 335,750: Continuing claims declined 97,000 to 2,714,000, a new pandemic low: Here is the YoY% change of continuing...

Consider these excerpts from a recent piece by Jeffrey Tucker at the Brownstone Institute with the understated title “The Purges Have Begin”.  Would someone who took these extreme, apocalyptic arguments to heart oppose efforts by a faction of ethno-nationalist Republicans to steal an election or entrench themselves in power? The policies have been bad enough but the political polarization has been the real poison. In history, we’ve seen where this...

Housing and car sales, oh my! [If last week was a slow week for economic data, this week is a virtual wasteland until Thursday, so I took yesterday off.] Last month I wrote that typically it has taken at least a 20% decline in housing construction to be consistent with an oncoming recession and that we weren’t there yet. As of the most recent housing permits report, single-family permits were down 17% from their recent peak: One...

Over at 538, Nathaniel Rakich points out that Biden’s approval rating is continuing to decline, despite the fact that Afghanistan coverage has declined.  It’s hard to know what is going on here, but my guess is that two factors outside Afghanistan are important.  First, the pandemic is dragging on, and people tend to blame the President and his party for not fixing problems.  This reflects what Brendan Nyhan called the Green Lantern theory of the...

Commenter and Blogger RJS, MarketWatch 666, “Trade Deficit Rose 4.2% to a Record High in August on Higher Imports of Pharmaceuticals and Services” Our trade deficit rose by 4.2% in August as the value of both our exports and our imports increased, but the value of our imports increased by four times as much . . . the Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and services for August indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods...