The Angry Bear

Cringeworthy, are the numbers of people who still are unvaccinated and believe they will not be stricken by Covid. Hospitals, doctors, nurses and the staff are at critical mass again. Meanwhile courts continue to block mandatory vaccinations on the premise it is their right to become infected and endanger others. And Republicans are cheering on their supporters to resist anything which may prevent Covid. Cringworthy; VP Kamala Harris In an...

Total supplies at an 83 month low; total demand at a record high; distillates demand at 18+ year high; global shortage at 1,210,000 bpd, Focus On Fracking, RJS Strategic Petroleum Reserve approaching a 19 year low; oil + products supplies drop to an 83 month low; total oil product demand sets a record high, led by distillates demand at 18+ year high; global oil shortage at 1,210,000 barrels per day in November as OPEC output falls 563,000 barrels...

Friday morning I argued that Democrats should stop trying to save Republicans from themselves. Biden will address nation and change his approach I was unaware that on Thursday afternoon Biden had given a statement to the press urging people to get vaccinated.  Apparently he will also give a national address Tuesday.  According to the New York Times: Mr. Biden “will announce new steps the Administration is taking to help communities in need...

Real retail sales declined in November, but continue to auger well for strong jobs growth, New Deal Democrat Retail sales, one of my favorite “real” economic indicators, were reported this morning for November. They increased 0.3% for the month, and October’s blockbuster report was revised 0.1% higher, to +1.8%. After inflation, though, “real” retail sales declined  -0.5%.  Although real retail sales are down -2.6% from their April peak, they...

Whole Lotka Shakin’ Goin’ On In a 1967 festschrift for Maurice Dobb, Richard Goodwin published an influential paper, “A Growth Cycle” on the “class struggle” model of cycles in economic growth. I only became aware of this famous paper because it had occurred to me that the dynamics of relative surplus population, necessary labour time, and socially necessary labour time might resemble a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. Goodwin’s model dealt...

A brief introduction, not to New Deal democrat, but to the subject matter. An extremely contagious new Covid virus is emerging globally and in the US. Those who have resisted inoculations and other preventative measures may find themselves particularly vulnerable. Reviewing the graphs presented, this virus will rapidly infect the US. This Covid Virus will test the ability of people’s resistance. Coronavirus dashboard: An Urgent Warning about...

—We study history in order to better understand what is going on now, to be better able to look into the future. — The Great Depression was a manifestation of the utter and complete failure of capitalism. Social Security, unemployment, and Welfare were implicit admissions of this failure. Capitalism had spectacularly failed to provide for labor, therefore capitalism should have borne the cost of Social Security and Welfare. The capitalists,...

A few weeks ago I argued the Democrats should declare victory over Covid-19 and begin managing it as an endemic disease.  I want to flesh out my reasoning and discuss how the emergence of Omicron changes the calculus. I believe that Biden should make an address to the nation about Covid-19, with three basic points.  First, he should emphasize that vaccines and treatments are highly effective.  He should say that for most of us the risks posed...

 by New Deal democrat The state of the American consumer Yesterday I updated my alternative “consumer nowcast” fundamentals-based model of the economy, which serves as a check on my other models, and posted it over at Seeking Alpha. Hard to believe that I first wrote up that model over 15 years ago way back when I was a fledgling diarist at Daily Kos. The one surprise has been that, back then, I didn’t think interest rates could...