The Angry Bear

Whole Lotka Shakin’ Goin’ On In a 1967 festschrift for Maurice Dobb, Richard Goodwin published an influential paper, “A Growth Cycle” on the “class struggle” model of cycles in economic growth. I only became aware of this famous paper because it had occurred to me that the dynamics of relative surplus population, necessary labour time, and socially necessary labour time might resemble a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. Goodwin’s model dealt...

A brief introduction, not to New Deal democrat, but to the subject matter. An extremely contagious new Covid virus is emerging globally and in the US. Those who have resisted inoculations and other preventative measures may find themselves particularly vulnerable. Reviewing the graphs presented, this virus will rapidly infect the US. This Covid Virus will test the ability of people’s resistance. Coronavirus dashboard: An Urgent Warning about...

—We study history in order to better understand what is going on now, to be better able to look into the future. — The Great Depression was a manifestation of the utter and complete failure of capitalism. Social Security, unemployment, and Welfare were implicit admissions of this failure. Capitalism had spectacularly failed to provide for labor, therefore capitalism should have borne the cost of Social Security and Welfare. The capitalists,...

A few weeks ago I argued the Democrats should declare victory over Covid-19 and begin managing it as an endemic disease.  I want to flesh out my reasoning and discuss how the emergence of Omicron changes the calculus. I believe that Biden should make an address to the nation about Covid-19, with three basic points.  First, he should emphasize that vaccines and treatments are highly effective.  He should say that for most of us the risks posed...

 by New Deal democrat The state of the American consumer Yesterday I updated my alternative “consumer nowcast” fundamentals-based model of the economy, which serves as a check on my other models, and posted it over at Seeking Alpha. Hard to believe that I first wrote up that model over 15 years ago way back when I was a fledgling diarist at Daily Kos. The one surprise has been that, back then, I didn’t think interest rates could...

As we have discussed before, words matter. Matt Yglesias: As a person with a platform, the best thing I can say is that you should get vaccinated and boosted, you should get your kids vaccinated, and you should encourage others in your lives to do the same. Kevin Drum: If Donald Trump and the rest of the conservative establishment had gone into full battle mode over COVID vaccinations, urging everyone to get their shots immediately, the...

The defense against COVID-19 called for an all-out united effort. In times past, America would have risen to the challenge. Much of the failure to respond is attributable to the deep political divide that grips the country. A divide that was fostered and nurtured by the Republican Party for political purposes. (Yes, Judy, it is the Republican Party that is responsible) The coincidence of Trump’s election and the appearance of the virus was an...

Production, layoffs, housing hit the positive trifecta in November, New Deal democrat We got a blizzard of November and December data this morning across all three – coincident, short leading, and long leading – timeframes: industrial production, jobless claims, and housing permits and starts. All three were positive. Let’s start with the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, which rose 0.5% in November. Manufacturing production...

[embedded content] Cruz Hits Biden Inflation Crisis on Squawk Box: Democrats’ Solution is to Pour Gasoline on the Fire – YouTubeAt 7:20 minutes, you get to hear Cancun Ted talk about the crisis supposedly created by Democrats. “In a time of Crisis, character is revealed. On the Democratic side, we have seen Democratic politicians are authoritarian. They will control your life. They will order you to obey and they will destroy you if you don’t....