The Angry Bear

by David Zetland The one-handed economist Humans are not doing enough mitigation to slow — let alone reverse — climate change chaos. Average global temperatures are now +1.xxC, far above the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.” In this 2011...

Post-June FOMC: By Overreacting Hawkishly, the Fed Risks Being Behind the Ball by Preston Mui employ america org The simple fact as seen in a longer-run view, inflation has fallen greatly. Whether you start from its peak at 5.6% in February 2022 or 4.2% when the Fed raised rates to the current level, core PCE inflation—which is on track to deliver a 2.6% year-on-year read for May 2024—is most of the way back to 2%. The inflation...

If you look at Part 1 and Part 2 of The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 CBO projections. The estimation of Net Immigration varies anywhere from 2.7 to 3.3 million to the US in 2024. In Part 1, of CBO’s current estimates, net immigration is larger than the agency estimated last year, by 0.7 million people in 2021, 1.4 million people in 2022, 1.9 million people in 2023, 2.1 million people in 2024, 1.5 million people in 2025, and 0.7 million people in...

One of the challenges with aging is keeping up with, and adapting to, change. Stuff you believed is true at one time can be falsified by additional experiments. That’s how science works, and how science is different from religious dogma. And thanks to the intertubes, checking for updates is fast and easy. I posted here about the lead-crime hypothesis. It concerns the link between leaded gasoline and crime, and enjoys a lot of support from...

I put much of this short article in up just to make the point, “we had no basis for what we were doing. And wat we did promote was not a cure. It was preventive actions on droplets within six feet rather than a plan to limit exposure to an aerosol spread of Covid. The article make that point. And Ms. Greene makes a fool of herself. ~~~~~~~~ COVID taught us a lot for future pandemics. Attacking Fauci doesn’t make us safer. by Dr. Ashish K....

Report on the impact from the expanded unemployment insurance, economic impact payments, aid to states and localities, child tax credits, and temporary protection from eviction amongst other measures as reported by the authors. These actions provided relief to workers and their families to help them weather the recession. These measures also fed the surge in employment, wages, and gave low-wage workers better job opportunities and leverage to see...

Tyler Cowen links to an article suggesting that Taylor Swift’s upcoming concerts in London may boost inflation and delay an interest rate cut by the Bank of England. I am not a macroeconomist, but color my skeptical.  For one thing, a short blip in the demand for hotel rooms in London will likely increase room rates, but this increase really will be temporary – it will reverse as soon as Swift leaves town.  More significantly, spending on...

Taken from Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse I thought perhaps the argument going on in front of Federal Judge Cannon about Jack Smith’s appointment to prosecute XPres. Donald Trump might need some explanation. I am borrowing from Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse as a subscriber. This is kind of a sideshow to the real issue of trump being prosecuted. The Defense is pulling from whatever pile of mud they have to disrupt and delay the trial to such time as...

by Bill McBride Calculated Risk, May 29, 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 2024: Reports from 4,568 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) report aggregate net income of $64.2 billion in first quarter 2024, an increase of $28.4 billion (79.5 percent) from the prior quarter. A large decline in noninterest expense because of several substantial,...

For all the dads and old guys, one of my favorite John Hartford songs:Let him go on mama Tags: John Hartford, Let him go on mamma