The Angry Bear

 – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have very limited value in economic forecasting, since they are the trade of an existing product rather than indicating growth or contraction in the creation of a new product. Thus my main focus at present on this data is the extent to which it shows – or not – the rebalancing of the housing market.  That’s because, unlike existing homeowners, house builders can vary square footage, amenities, lot sizes,...

The last decade has seen many initiatives toward clean, green, and low-carbon energy, as well as a global shift toward electric vehicles and automation. Many of these initiatives were enabled rare earth magnets, which is why rare earth magnets are heavily used now and will continue to be used in the future. When my dad retired as a chemical engineer for Martin-Marietta at the age of 62, he started a one-man company based on a patent he was awarded. It...

According to one well-known theory of electoral competition, voters care about policies, and candidates pick policies to maximize their appeal to voters.  This suggests that campaigns will try to appeal to the median voter.  There is obviously something to this model, and this year, as always, it is a safe bet that each side will, at least to an extent, focus on issues that tend to draw in cross-pressured voters.  The Democrats will focus on...

 – by New Deal democrat I’ve written repeatedly in the past few months that I am paying especial attention to the manufacturing and construction sectors for signs of weakness now that the supply chain tailwind for the economy has ended. At the beginning of this month, one show appeared to have dropped, as the ISM report on manufacturing showed contraction for the second month in a row, declining slightly to 48.7, with the more leading new orders...

Less than a week away and the debate between Biden and Trump will occur. Given Biden’s State of the Union Address, I do not envision he will be giving much room to trump. I do believe trump’s main weaponry will be interrupting Biden’s speech so as to confuse the issues amongst people. There is no real way to control trump so as to conduct a civil exchange. Economist Robert Reich has a pretty good idea of what to do. I hope Biden’s speechwriters...

Finally, someone of stature is taking a look at private equity acquiring hospital chains, milking their funds, and leaving a shell of what the original hospital was earlier. I am hoping Elizabeth Warren can force the issues with these take overs private equity takeovers. In the end, many communities depending on these hospitals are left without adequate healthcare services. Thy are forced to travel miles to get emergency and other care. I added 4 to...

 – by New Deal democrat This morning’s jobless claims report continued the uptrend we’ve seen for the past month. But it still looks more likely than not that it is mainly unresolved post-pandemic seasonality. We’ll probably get a more definitive answer to that issue in th next several weeks. Initial Jobless claims declined 5,000 for the week to 238,000. The 4 week moving average rose 5,500 to a new 9 month high of 232,750. With the typical one...

Pandemics are bad for economies. Vaccinations are an important bulwark against pandemics. But all viruses and all vaccines are not alike.In the case of the annual flu vaccine, annual vaccination against flu variants can be a problem: antibody-producing memory cells crowd out new antibody-producing cells, and people develop relatively few neutralizing antibodies against the strains in the newer vaccine. Does getting updated COVID boosters interfere...

The latest news? Do not drink.A shot of anything is generally 1.50 fluid ounces, which is 41.7 grams. Whiskey can range in proof, starting at 80 proof. Simple math and using 80 proof whisky (40% alcohol) yields 16.68 grams of alcohol. I am going to guess Bourbon is similar. I got tired of reading the NYT article which is also on Yahoo and printed twice in the same column. I do not have leeway to current NYT articles. This JAMA Network Open study...

It appears upper management is running away with most of the compensation. Adding to this is the lowered taxes resulting from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which was passed using Reconciliation. The TCJA is due to reverse in 2025. I am sure President Biden will reverse it for the upper 20% at least. ~~~~~~~ NEW YORK (AP) — Compensation packages for S&P CEOs running companies jumped nearly 13% last year. This easily surpasses the gains for...