Mosler Economics

Beat down by the tariffs, virus effects soon to come: Nice move up against the trend. We’ll see if it reverses like the Markit survey has: Examples of a recent reversals: Bit of a move down here as the virus slows things down in China: Still decelerating:

Another one of those brief moves up after the long slide seems to be reversing: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US declined to 50.1 in February of 2020 from 50.9 in January and below market expectations of 50.5. New orders contracted (49.8 from 52), production slowed (50.3 from 54.3) and both employment (46.9 from 46.6) and inventories (46.5 from 48.8) continued to fall. Also, price pressures declined (45.9 from 53.3). Global supply chains are impacting most, if not all,...

Just hit an all time low yield as markets anticipate a weakening economy will lead to lower rates from the Fed: Crude oil demand is falling with the weakening global economy. While oil producers in general sell their entire output at market prices, the Saudis are the ‘swing producer’, setting price and letting the quantity they sell to their clients vary with demand. Therefore, a drop in global demand results in reduced Saudi production and sales, while prices remain at...

Continues to decelerate from the tariffs, and this is before the virus: Also decelerating before the virus: Before the virus, the downtrend is obvious as it remains below 50: Exports and imports both slowing as global trade continues to wind down: GDP forecast to decelerate, before the virus: Unsold inventory piling up: Gone negative well before the virus:

The decline continues, and this was well before the coronavirus: Rolling over: The charts show the economy has been continuously decelerating from the time the tariffs took effect, and now with the coronavirus it’s likely to decelerate that much more quickly into negative growth. The private sector tends to be pro cyclical, which is why back in 2009 it took a federal deficit of maybe 10% of GDP to turn things around, and why it is likely it will take same to turn things...

New home sales continue to grow at a slower pace than prior cycles, with absolute levels remaining historically depressed. The chart is not population adjusted: Can also be a reflection of what’s going on in China: Another one of those recent moves up that is now likely to reverse:

Back below 0 but could still be trending higher: From the quarterly report. Historically depressed and recently fading:

Settling in near 0 after the fall: Settling in near 0 after the fall: Negative growth since August:

This one is for the lion’s share of the US economy and it’s fallen back: Same with manufacturing: Also fell back some and in general remains depressed and going nowhere: Kudlow says market is wrong… ;) Looks like the President’s mental capabilities are rapidly deteriorating:

The Philadelphia Fed’s survey just gapped up, much like some of the others. Could be that manufacturing has stabilized at current levels, but too soon to say: White House Admits That Trump Trade Stance Did Depress Economy