Mosler Economics

Largely unchanged for over a year now: Historically depressed, and adjusted for inflation and population growth real estate lending growth isn’t much above 0: This much credit tightening has historically been followed by recession: Still no candidates showing an understanding of monetary operations, so it’s not a distinction :( Bloomberg unveils plans for Americans’ Social Security, retirement savings

Contraction: The index is up but the mix of details is odd:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers The number of job openings in the US fell by 364,000 to 6.423 million in December 2019 from a revised 6.787 million in November and well below market expectations of 7.0 million. It was the lowest level since December 2017, as openings slumped by 332 thousand in the private sector and were down by 32 thousand in government. Over the year, the job openings level declined by 14.9 percent. Still with the trumped up...

Year over year growth declined, at least for now reversing a small move up in the context of a larger move lower. Decelerating employment growth generally coincides with decelerating GDP, as has been the case: Another indicator that’s been perking up. May be weather related: Intermodal traffic’s prolonged contraction shifted to expansion last month:

Jan 2019 printed 312,000 net hires, so anything less in tomorrow’s report means the year over year growth was lower. The average for the rest of the year was about 200,000, well below prior years: This is how it stands before tomorrow’s release:

Typical collapse prior to recessions: Still working its way lower: Another example of a small move up after a long downtrend that are touted to be a ‘reversal’: Another somewhat misleading headline, as per the year over year chart:

Up a bit this month but still trending lower. And on an inflation adjusted basis well below prior highs. The chart is not inflation adjusted: A blip up this month, but remains in contraction (below 50):

Another one of those small blip ups we’ve been seeing; US Factory Activity Posts 1st Growth in 6 Months The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped to 50.9 in January from 47.8 in December, beating market forecasts of 48.5. The reading pointed to the first increase in factory activity in six months. A recovery was seen for new orders, export orders and production and employment fell at a slower pace. In contrast, inventories dropped more and price pressures intensified....

Bad: Bad: Bad: Fewer Companies Plan To Hire – More Economic Concerns