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The author WARREN MOSLER
WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

Mosler Economics

Personal income and consumption

Personal income, which includes gov transfer payments, is coming down in steps after spiking for the fiscal adjustments, and still remains a bit higher than it would have been as transfer payments wind down: Transfer payments are coming down, but remain elevated largely due to unemployment: Excluding transfer payments it’s still well short of where it was: Real consumption, supported by transfer payments, has come back but is leveling off below pre-covid levels:...

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New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey

Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which meansto me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress,and without a sufficient majority in the Senate all initiatives may be blocked indefinitely. Most likely new home sales at best return to their pre covid growth path: Trump was upset with Canada because they weren’t charging us enough for lumber: Lumber prices across North America have nearly tripled since 2019. Based on a...

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Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production

Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower levels: As with vehicles, the rate of monthly sales has recovered to prior levels, but sales lost during the dip weren’t recovered: Industrial production has had a much weaker recovery and has turned back down: Recovered some but still down from pre covid levels:...

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