Mosler Economics

Highlights The surge in refinancing is easing as the related index, after spiking 37.0 and 12.0 percent in the two prior weeks, rose only 0.4 percent in the August 16 week. Yet rates did move lower in the week, down another 3 basis points to 3.90 percent for conventional 30-year loans and down nearly 20 basis points over the past month. Mortgage-related gains for the purchase index have been much more subdued with this index up 0.4 percent in the latest week and the...

Japan Exports Fall for 8th Month Exports from Japan dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier to JPY 6.64 trillion in July 2019, the eighth straight month of decrease and compared to market expectations of 2.2 percent fall, amid weakening global demand and the US-China trade dispute. An Economic Warning Sign: RV Sales Are Slipping Elkhart, Ind., is flashing a warning sign that a recession could be just ahead. Capital of the country’s recreational-vehicle industry, the...

Still elevated: Not looking good: Starts down and rolling over, permits up for the month but still trending lower, as per the charts: Highlights A slow turn upward is the indication from a mixed but still positive housing starts and permits report for July, headlined by a much lower-than-expected rate for starts and a much higher-than-expected rate for permits. Starts, at a total 1.191 million annual rate, were dragged lower by a sharp fall for multi-family homes to a...

Tariffs doing their thing to the US economy: Highlights A jump in utility output couldn’t save industrial production in July which, pressured by contraction in both manufacturing and also mining, came in near the low end of Econoday’s consensus range with a 0.2 percent decline. Utilities, where production is affected by the weather and where results are often volatile, jumped 3.1 percent in the month following a 3.3 percent June decline. Outside of this component, however,...

German Economy Contracts in Q2 as Exports Fall Germany’s gross domestic product contracted by a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, following a 0.4 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP, mainly due to a slump in exports, while fixed capital formation in construction also declined. China Industrial Output: Growth...

You can’t make this stuff up… So the problem is Americans might not buy Chinese products? Trump says he delayed tariffs because of concerns over Christmas shopping season

China Vehicle Sales Fall for 13th Month Vehicles sales in China decreased 4.3 percent from a year earlier in July 2019, the 13th consecutive month of decline, as the economy slows further amid the trade spat with the US. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) tumbled 4.7 percent to 80,000 units, the first yearly drop in more two years, following China’s move to cut NEV subsidies last month. Interesting how the chart shows the belief trade policy would help increased for a bit...

Peaked a few years ago and trending lower: BEA: July Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.8 Million SAAR The BEA released their estimate of July vehicle sales on Tuesday. The BEA estimated sales of 16.82 million SAAR in July 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.8% from the June sales rate, and down slightly from July 2018. Sales in 2019 are averaging 16.9 million (average of seasonally adjusted rate), down 1.5% compared to the same period in 2018. Automakers trim...

Rail Week Ending 03 August 2019: July Down 6.1% Oil related capex never recovered to prior levels and is now in decline: Down some more:

Bankruptcy-related job losses invoke grim reminders of Great Recession In the first seven months of the year, U.S.-based companies announced 42,937 job cuts due to bankruptcy, up 40% from the same period last year and nearly 20% higher than all bankruptcy-related job losses last year, a report released Tuesday concluded. Despite record-low unemployment, bankruptcy filings have not claimed this many jobs since the Great Recession.“It is the highest seven-month total since...