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Heiner Flassbeck — The economic situation in Bulgaria and Romania – Part 2

Summary:
How little the two Eastern European countries that we have focused on can be compared with Western countries can be seen very clearly in the development of unemployment (Graph 1). Following the major crisis of 2008/2009, the unemployment rate in Romania hardly rose at all. In Bulgaria it increased significantly, but despite weak economic development after 2013 it is falling at an astonishing rate, almost to the relatively low Romanian level.For Romania, this can only mean that unemployment is not recorded as such or that the outflow of labour is so rapid that, despite significant declines in production, the labour force does not register as unemployed at home. In the case of Bulgaria, there have probably been considerable migration effects in recent years, which have ensured that

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How little the two Eastern European countries that we have focused on can be compared with Western countries can be seen very clearly in the development of unemployment (Graph 1). Following the major crisis of 2008/2009, the unemployment rate in Romania hardly rose at all. In Bulgaria it increased significantly, but despite weak economic development after 2013 it is falling at an astonishing rate, almost to the relatively low Romanian level.

For Romania, this can only mean that unemployment is not recorded as such or that the outflow of labour is so rapid that, despite significant declines in production, the labour force does not register as unemployed at home. In the case of Bulgaria, there have probably been considerable migration effects in recent years, which have ensured that official unemployment has remained within limits.…
The neoliberal solution to unemployment at the national level—emigration to other countries where employment may be available.

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The economic situation in Bulgaria and Romania – Part 2

Heiner Flassbeck
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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