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Is There Really A Trade-Off Between Inflation And Unemployment? — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
Rather than attempt to explain what the mainly neoclassical economists are going on about, I want to step back and try to translate their debate into terms that would be understood by people who do not share the same assumptions. I am pretty sure that post-Keynesian economists have a lot to say about the topic as well, but once again, they tend to be discussing wonkish points that would elude an outsider.…I have an engineering background, and engineering is largely the science of trade-offs. I have no strong objections to qualitative discussions, but I would argue that we need to at least know the sign of the exchange ratio between two variables in order to say that there is a trade-off between them. Very simply, if we can have a policy that lowers both the unemployment rate and the

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Rather than attempt to explain what the mainly neoclassical economists are going on about, I want to step back and try to translate their debate into terms that would be understood by people who do not share the same assumptions. I am pretty sure that post-Keynesian economists have a lot to say about the topic as well, but once again, they tend to be discussing wonkish points that would elude an outsider.…

I have an engineering background, and engineering is largely the science of trade-offs. I have no strong objections to qualitative discussions, but I would argue that we need to at least know the sign of the exchange ratio between two variables in order to say that there is a trade-off between them.
Very simply, if we can have a policy that lowers both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate (or at least leaves inflation unchanged), we cannot pretend there is a meaningful "trade-off" between them.
And this is hardly theoretical: in the United States, we saw a near monotonic decrease in the unemployment rate after the Financial Crisis, yet the inflation rate has done absolutely nothing interesting....
Bond Economics
Is There Really A Trade-Off Between Inflation And Unemployment?
Brian Romanchuk
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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