Tag Archives: Phillips Curve

The Phillips curve plays a central role in the policy debate (this is partly due to the fact that debaters have finally learned to ignore very highly theoretical and unrealistic DSGE models).  Just to review, the Phillips curve should show a negative relationship between unemployment and actual inflation minus expected inflation (it has been defined this way since 1960) The point where inflation is equal to expected inflation is called the...

If you look at Part 1 and Part 2 of The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 CBO projections. The estimation of Net Immigration varies anywhere from 2.7 to 3.3 million to the US in 2024. In Part 1, of CBO’s current estimates, net immigration is larger than the agency estimated last year, by 0.7 million people in 2021, 1.4 million people in 2022, 1.9 million people in 2023, 2.1 million people in 2024, 1.5 million people in 2025, and 0.7 million people in...

Is The Downward Sloping Phillips Curve Back?  Maybe. We have gotten so used to the idea that to the extent it is even meaningful it is flat at an inflation rate of 2%, nobody talks about the old textbook Phillips Curve that slopes down.  But there is some evidence that out of all these pandemic upheavals it may be back, at least for a while. If this is the case then indeed there may be a tradeoff, and the higher inflation the US is experiencing...

There are many myths about the Phillips Curve and the so-called Monetarist Counter-Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s. Forder's book is a good read on some of these issues. Jeremy Rudd's recent paper is also a must read, and has now been accepted for publication in the Review of Keynesian Economics (ROKE).It debunks the myth about the importance of inflationary expectations for explaining the Great Inflation of the 1970s, and casts doubts about the Monetarist Counter Revolution, the Rational...

Rather than attempt to explain what the mainly neoclassical economists are going on about, I want to step back and try to translate their debate into terms that would be understood by people who do not share the same assumptions. I am pretty sure that post-Keynesian economists have a lot to say about the topic as well, but once again, they tend to be discussing wonkish points that would elude an outsider.…I have an engineering background, and engineering is largely the science of...

While the equation fits relatively well, clearly it’s not perfect. As of 2019Q2 (first two months), year-on-year PCE inflation is underpredicted by 40 bps. I estimated the equation on a restricted sample ending in 2014; this imparts only a marginal difference — so it’s not that something has changed substantially over the last 4 and a half years. Rather the specification could be improved. In other words, perhaps a different measure of NAIRU, or a nonlinearity might improve the fit....

President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser praised left-wing Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, after the political rivals found common ground in urging the Federal Reserve not to worry about low unemployment triggering inflation. “I’ve got to give her high marks for that,” Larry Kudlow told Fox News on Thursday, referring to Ocasio-Cortez’s quizzing of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Congress the previous day.... At least they agree that the Phillips Curve is wrong.Financial...

The Phillips Curve, an economic model developed by A. W. Phillips purports that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship.  This has been a fundamental guiding economic theory used by the Fed for decades to set interest rates. Various studies have proven the theory is bogus, yet proponents keep believing.… Without the Phillips Curve, the current approach to monetary policy is groundless other than "discretionary." There is no rule.And it's not just the Phillips...

Interesting look at the history.Information Transfer EconomicsIt's the 80s!Jason Smith

If we get inflation, it could be minus wage pressure across the board but only in places were the labor supply is short. Ordinary workers may not see much relief in the expansion, replicating their situation in the long and slow recovery period, owing to structural shifts in the economy — downsizing, offshoring, automation and robotics, etc.Asia TimesThere ain’t-a no Phillipsy Curve, once again David P. Goldman